Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa447decc35c8b6a8cf2e2cca9843ace7fa973e271cd360b4d3475909215496b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 72c | 631.82$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 599.34$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.84 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked Yes | 69c | 541.65$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 72c | 457.95$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 19c | 430.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 6c | 415.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 39c | 394.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 356.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.12 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 305.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 253.42$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 228.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 52c | 207.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 40c | 194.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 11c | 175.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 154.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 148.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 26c | 147$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 48c | 144.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 126.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 40c | 124.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 45c | 119.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked Yes | 59c | 119$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 42c | 118.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 118.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed No | 11c | 110.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06e…291bbacked No | 26c | 108.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 103.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 72c | 100.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 10c | 98.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 53c | 90.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 12c | 89.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 79.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 51c | 77.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 42c | 67.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 46c | 65.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 62.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 60.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 58c | 53.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 51.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 72c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 61c | 49.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 29c | 48.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 45.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked Yes | 49c | 43.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 42.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 42.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 39.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 72c | 34.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 31.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 49c | 31.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 35c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 66c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 56c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed Yes | 75c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.