TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Kraken vs. Blue Jackets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jacketsof Kraken, Blue Jackets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,011,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,039,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,011,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Blue Jackets63c191,689$120,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,924.8315054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Blue Jackets64c157,185$99,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,216.5367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Blue Jackets64c114,481$73,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,215.341,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Kraken37c108,200$40,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,03448545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Blue Jackets63c68,737$43,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,432.578657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Kraken37c55,116$20,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,160.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84af…9e87backed Kraken0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Kraken36c49,435$17,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,796.561,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kraken37c44,835$16,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,391.1761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Blue Jackets65c38,432$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,432.182564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Kraken37c33,819$12,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5136147.5%29 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked Kraken35c30,225$10,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,578.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Kraken38c23,828$9,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,054.645639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kraken36c23,082$8,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,217.4659450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Kraken36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kraken35c19,810$6,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,933.548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken36c15,939$5,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,677.931,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kraken36c15,915$5,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,729.42,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Kraken36c15,714$5,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,657.0412047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Kraken37c15,714$5,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.154856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Blue Jackets63c14,000$8,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,179.9826058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Kraken37c12,500$4,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,62551045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Kraken34c12,264$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,198.6330348.8%148 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken37c12,051$4,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,398.811,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kraken36c11,806$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,25047951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed Blue Jackets64c10,891$6,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Kraken37c10,891$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,029.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Blue Jackets62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8002951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kraken36c9,363$3,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335.592,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x656f…76b9backed Kraken36c8,491$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Kraken38c8,384$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.7450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Kraken17c7,282$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.7727448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Kraken35c6,940$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.8710650%53 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Kraken37c6,360$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.22853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…e27fbacked Kraken37c6,327$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Kraken37c6,041$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.3645751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Kraken38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.9561748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Kraken39c5,672$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.034045%18 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Kraken36c5,555$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.852050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Kraken37c5,500$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03513446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kraken35c4,944$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.8483149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0539…46c9backed Kraken37c4,820$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blue Jackets60c4,499$2,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.571,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Blue Jackets61c4,236$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.989249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blue Jackets71c4,080$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.431,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Blue Jackets60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60011553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Kraken14c3,861$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.2433234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff9…a78bbacked Kraken37c3,826$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.676262.9%39 W · 23 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Kraken37c3,820$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.3613049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Blue Jackets60c3,648$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.1414954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Kraken37c3,614$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3378536.5%31 W · 54 L-11.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5c9e…f504backed Kraken37c3,535$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kraken38c3,500$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kraken30c3,475$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.11,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Kraken40c3,368$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.93435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Kraken40c3,341$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.6648050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blue Jackets61c3,300$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kraken26c3,065$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.2389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Kraken38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Kraken38c2,800$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.9927850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Kraken37c2,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.975149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2c…bb26backed Kraken37c2,560$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Kraken37c2,452$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.924738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blue Jackets60c2,374$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.131,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Kraken40c2,309$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.5110938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Blue Jackets64c2,264$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.6685250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Kraken37c2,211$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8183333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Kraken37c2,174$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.2164242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Kraken37c2,170$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.944551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Kraken37c2,116$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7833450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kraken11c2,101$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.891,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Kraken37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Kraken36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Kraken39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9921048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6076…b218backed Kraken39c1,977$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kraken24c1,750$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.342,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Blue Jackets63c1,746$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.032857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Kraken36c1,700$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.98560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa706…4b9ebacked Kraken39c1,680$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kraken11c1,657$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2589355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Blue Jackets65c1,628$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.427755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Kraken36c1,606$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.6122852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7a…c0abbacked Kraken37c1,593$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Kraken37c1,580$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.716246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kraken16c1,508$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.171,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Kraken36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kraken22c1,445$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.972,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Blue Jackets62c1,400$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.4891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Blue Jackets63c1,300$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.0538849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kraken21c1,225$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.123,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Kraken41c1,209$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Kraken37c1,200$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9712646.8%59 W · 67 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Kraken36c1,116$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.133941.3%140 W · 199 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Blue Jackets61c1,111$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.2910850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Blue Jackets64c1,060$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.235349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Kraken11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Kraken36c999.93$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.97955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Blue Jackets62c965.96$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.0786649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be5…5741backed Kraken39c860$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacac…d1dabacked Kraken9c831$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.