UFC · resolved market
Blackshear vs. Alatengheili
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ef4cd4eeb91dcee80e96119d1e7a750d9c960439490749f4decdadc86d5fd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackshearof Blackshear, Alatengheili
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Alatengheili | 17c | 10,000$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.93 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Alatengheili | 21c | 3,426$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Alatengheili | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Alatengheili | 18c | 2,530$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Alatengheili | 18c | 2,076$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.2 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Alatengheili | 19c | 1,851$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Blackshear | 76c | 1,350$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Alatengheili | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Alatengheili | 6c | 617.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Blackshear | 78c | 598.86$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.55 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…9d99backed Alatengheili | 15c | 516.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Alatengheili | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Alatengheili | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Alatengheili | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Alatengheili | 11c | 347.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Alatengheili | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Alatengheili | 8c | 223$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Alatengheili | 16c | 182.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Alatengheili | 13c | 171$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Alatengheili | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Alatengheili | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Alatengheili | 22c | 149.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…4002backed Alatengheili | 16c | 143.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blackshear | 78c | 141.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Alatengheili | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Alatengheili | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Alatengheili | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Alatengheili | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Alatengheili | 18c | 81.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Alatengheili | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Blackshear | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackshear vs. Alatengheilithis page
- Aliskerov vs. MunizAliskerov won
- Amorim vs. VianaAmorim won
- Brown vs. DalbyBrown won
- Chandler vs. EdwardsEdwards won
- Chikadze vs. Onama Onama won
- Machado Garry vs. PratesMachado Garry won
- Pereira vs. MagomedovMagomedov won
- Schnell vs. FlickSchnell won
- Smith vs. Mingyang Mingyang won
- Wellmaker vs. SaaimanWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.