UFC · resolved market
Schnell vs. Flick
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f080b436f2c9ed22d3e31bc2cf98b9af4a794054454c311a089bb36b44d260d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Schnellof Schnell, Flick
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c5e…9d99backed Flick | 42c | 5,382$2,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Schnell | 58c | 4,444$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.48 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Flick | 40c | 4,069$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.49 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Flick | 28c | 3,570$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Flick | 41c | 3,019$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.61 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Flick | 41c | 2,327$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.16 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Schnell | 66c | 2,312$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.88 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Schnell | 67c | 2,137$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.64 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Schnell | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Schnell | 60c | 1,162$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.66 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Schnell | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Schnell | 63c | 980$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…af56backed Flick | 40c | 865$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…dc58backed Schnell | 60c | 845$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Schnell | 38c | 805.8$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.79 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Schnell | 58c | 794$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.48 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Flick | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed Schnell | 60c | 735$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…a6d3backed Flick | 40c | 710$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Schnell | 58c | 669.83$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.33 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…9cb4backed Flick | 40c | 630$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Schnell | 59c | 588.6$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.33 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…accfbacked Schnell | 60c | 555$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…89eabacked Flick | 40c | 535$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Schnell | 63c | 480.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…c901backed Flick | 40c | 445$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Schnell | 72c | 424.44$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…b318backed Flick | 41c | 413.01$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Schnell | 56c | 340$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Schnell | 48c | 332$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Flick | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaa…753ebacked Flick | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…330fbacked Schnell | 60c | 285$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…47bbbacked Schnell | 60c | 265$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…7f94backed Flick | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…9eeebacked Schnell | 60c | 240$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4434…9aa2backed Schnell | 60c | 235$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Flick | 44c | 227.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Schnell | 59c | 219.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Schnell | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Schnell | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Schnell | 60c | 192$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Schnell | 68c | 188.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked Schnell | 60c | 185$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Schnell | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…35e8backed Schnell | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Schnell | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Schnell | 29c | 156.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Schnell | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Schnell | 64c | 124.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Schnell | 59c | 123$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Flick | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Flick | 40c | 104.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Schnell | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Schnell | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Flick | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Schnell | 57c | 88.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…964ebacked Schnell | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Schnell | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Flick | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Schnell | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…49e0backed Flick | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Schnell | 57c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Schnell | 60c | 63.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Flick | 33c | 63.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Flick | 27c | 63.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Flick | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Schnell | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Schnell | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Flick | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Schnell | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…7692backed Flick | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…7694backed Schnell | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Schnell | 60c | 31.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…93fcbacked Schnell | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…d702backed Schnell | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…aae6backed Flick | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Schnell | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a17…5bfdbacked Schnell | 59c | 28.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Flick | 44c | 28.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8751…fd3dbacked Flick | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Schnell vs. Flickthis page
- Aliskerov vs. MunizAliskerov won
- Amorim vs. VianaAmorim won
- Blackshear vs. AlatengheiliBlackshear won
- Brown vs. DalbyBrown won
- Chandler vs. EdwardsEdwards won
- Chikadze vs. Onama Onama won
- Machado Garry vs. PratesMachado Garry won
- Pereira vs. MagomedovMagomedov won
- Smith vs. Mingyang Mingyang won
- Wellmaker vs. SaaimanWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.