TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Machado Garry vs. Prates

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Machado Garryof Machado Garry, Prates​
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$389,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$382,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Prates​39c67,620$26,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,612.5935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6190…0e7abacked Prates​45c34,523$15,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,535.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70e5…e989backed Machado Garry55c34,523$18,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,535.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Machado Garry60c33,406$20,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,326.1222259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c5e…9d99backed Prates​24c27,784$6,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,675.66825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7411…4d79backed Prates​46c24,715$11,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,368.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b2…c416backed Machado Garry54c24,715$13,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,368.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Machado Garry60c20,907$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,306.8414857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Machado Garry61c19,176$11,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,530.613661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf4d…b1e6backed Prates​44c18,320$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Machado Garry56c13,830$7,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,024.1716951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Machado Garry60c13,354$8,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,341.1611140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Prates​44c11,400$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.993959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Machado Garry54c10,309$5,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,745.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Prates​40c10,245$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.923938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b13…39d3backed Machado Garry58c8,150$4,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4233455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Prates​42c5,950$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5124151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Prates​39c5,517$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.6435826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Prates​40c4,660$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.1316049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Prates​42c4,621$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9367653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Prates​40c4,500$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.484134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Prates​40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Prates​7c3,713$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8918145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Prates​30c3,663$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.1611844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Machado Garry61c3,440$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Prates​6c3,230$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4811540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Prates​8c3,204$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.076050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x982b…983cbacked Machado Garry62c3,059$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.422454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Machado Garry61c2,590$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Prates​7c2,557$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Prates​40c2,500$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.9925251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd232…c4aebacked Machado Garry61c2,331$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Machado Garry61c2,247$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.4624356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Machado Garry62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Machado Garry62c1,986$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.515870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a45…c7fabacked Prates​46c1,911$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Machado Garry62c1,850$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70337152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4a…a036backed Prates​40c1,848$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Prates​15c1,832$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7323537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…a60abacked Prates​41c1,812$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.181369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Machado Garry56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7129848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Prates​42c1,784$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.8311761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Machado Garry61c1,732$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.536943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked Machado Garry60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.673748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce0…5cb9backed Prates​40c1,653$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa357…6485backed Machado Garry55c1,552$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Prates​45c1,501$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.4416247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Machado Garry60c1,400$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5603857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Machado Garry61c1,304$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.562965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb010…b243backed Prates​40c1,299$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.571258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Prates​22c1,294$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29dc…bf90backed Machado Garry62c1,258$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…c40dbacked Prates​8c1,238$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1808…eadbbacked Machado Garry62c1,210$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Machado Garry60c1,175$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4756262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Prates​40c1,170$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.994040%16 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9d…c74bbacked Prates​39c1,072$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Machado Garry60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Prates​21c948.39$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.394156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Machado Garry46c924.61$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.2921554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Machado Garry60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3335664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Machado Garry61c820$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.833253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Prates​40c803.82$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.044833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Machado Garry60c771.79$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.9210650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Prates​39c661.5$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.866547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Machado Garry58c657.74$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.2214751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Prates​42c599.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2558348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca86…4002backed Machado Garry62c576$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.851464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Machado Garry62c571.53$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.181172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Machado Garry55c558.91$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5111054.5%60 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Machado Garry54c538.97$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79b…107abacked Prates​40c531.6$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1754…cbf0backed Machado Garry61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Machado Garry60c450$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17813041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Machado Garry68c408.52$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.766657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Machado Garry55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1807541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b34…b5b5backed Prates​41c390.24$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604560%27 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Prates​4c372.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.341717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-68%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Machado Garry61c350$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.532545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Machado Garry61c330$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.79352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Machado Garry61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.879737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Machado Garry61c326$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3610439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…b318backed Prates​48c312$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Machado Garry61c303$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1742042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Machado Garry62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11424862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6532…e7c1backed Prates​43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc2…32eebacked Machado Garry59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Machado Garry58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Prates​44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Prates​45c299.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.995547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x319e…f3ccbacked Machado Garry55c287$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9789…21d1backed Prates​41c268.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Prates​6c251.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2621031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Machado Garry60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Machado Garry74c247.1$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4339959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bff…e03abacked Machado Garry55c246.64$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.991457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2bf…e8f8backed Prates​45c224.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Machado Garry56c220.34$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.565040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…6179backed Prates​39c214$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Prates​22c210$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.