UFC · resolved market
Amorim vs. Viana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe31aac2eae31b10eb380cb79b00125dc0446755758876e0d3d5ebde2274a89fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amorimof Amorim, Viana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Viana | 13c | 13,208$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.73 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Viana | 13c | 6,713$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.73 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Viana | 13c | 4,551$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.25 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Viana | 13c | 2,707$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.35 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Viana | 11c | 2,688$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Viana | 12c | 1,222$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Viana | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Viana | 15c | 550$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Viana | 8c | 444$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Viana | 10c | 405$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed Viana | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Viana | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Viana | 10c | 192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Viana | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Viana | 14c | 136.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Viana | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Viana | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Viana | 18c | 99.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Amorim vs. Vianathis page
- Aliskerov vs. MunizAliskerov won
- Blackshear vs. AlatengheiliBlackshear won
- Brown vs. DalbyBrown won
- Chandler vs. EdwardsEdwards won
- Chikadze vs. Onama Onama won
- Machado Garry vs. PratesMachado Garry won
- Pereira vs. MagomedovMagomedov won
- Schnell vs. FlickSchnell won
- Smith vs. Mingyang Mingyang won
- Wellmaker vs. SaaimanWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.