TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Wellmaker vs. Saaiman

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wellmakerof Wellmaker, Saaiman
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d8c…6ac2backed Wellmaker51c34,716$17,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,010.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2543…71b2backed Saaiman49c34,716$17,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,010.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Saaiman48c3,265$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Saaiman47c2,437$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.596829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Saaiman47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.9922259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Wellmaker52c1,980$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.42965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Wellmaker54c1,860$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.616951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Wellmaker52c1,549$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.164833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Wellmaker54c1,088$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.483661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…d78cbacked Saaiman46c1,030$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Wellmaker53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Saaiman48c962$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7614857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Wellmaker53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37611844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Wellmaker52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2329848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f1f…896bbacked Saaiman46c670$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7b…330abacked Wellmaker54c645$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67c…2e50backed Wellmaker54c640$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Saaiman48c622.06$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Saaiman49c599.97$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.995547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Wellmaker51c592.13$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.148140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Wellmaker52c547$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5618560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3248…28b9backed Wellmaker54c485$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Wellmaker52c483.27$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.6721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Saaiman49c410$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.624356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb741…b462backed Wellmaker54c395$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1231…27e8backed Wellmaker54c380$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Saaiman46c378.57$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5716247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Saaiman46c376.42$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1714751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…a60abacked Wellmaker53c375.14$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.141369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x42f0…c09cbacked Saaiman46c375$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Saaiman48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Wellmaker51c298.2$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.1242042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Saaiman46c295$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.836245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…b88ebacked Wellmaker54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Wellmaker56c250$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9612159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Wellmaker52c231$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8810452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2af…e23ebacked Saaiman48c225$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe30…0e3bbacked Saaiman46c225$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20a…d03ebacked Saaiman46c215$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b27…ab44backed Saaiman48c215$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Saaiman47c211.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Wellmaker52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9639959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2d…8f7bbacked Wellmaker56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c7…7f8dbacked Saaiman46c160$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Wellmaker52c149.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9933948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Saaiman46c143.41$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9714355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca86…4002backed Wellmaker55c143.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.471464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Saaiman46c138$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.485642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f20…438cbacked Wellmaker52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c85…160abacked Wellmaker54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0679…bebbbacked Saaiman47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507258.3%42 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Wellmaker50c104.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.034259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Wellmaker73c102.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.749352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Saaiman49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Saaiman49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Saaiman48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.514129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Saaiman46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4628743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Saaiman49c99.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.995536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2730…63eebacked Wellmaker53c95.41$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.842462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab4…4427backed Saaiman46c95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Saaiman46c86.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9710439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Saaiman31c81.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0311540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…5b14backed Wellmaker53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc00…d9e8backed Wellmaker54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Wellmaker51c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.858060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e2…7709backed Saaiman46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Wellmaker53c52.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8324649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Saaiman50c50.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.295648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Saaiman49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0619…b318backed Saaiman47c47.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9230…22a2backed Saaiman46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+48.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3954…decbbacked Saaiman46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…523fbacked Saaiman50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Wellmaker53c39.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.66560%39 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe07c…551dbacked Saaiman50c36.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.243438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-35.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked Wellmaker50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.59959.6%59 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Wellmaker53c32.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.311844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9789…21d1backed Saaiman49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Wellmaker53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.152252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a17…5bfdbacked Wellmaker53c28.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5e9…3166backed Saaiman49c24.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbe…d11cbacked Wellmaker54c24.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.133262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.