UFC · resolved market
Aliskerov vs. Muniz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f90aede3027d29cd6f2bf43e600c7215c0532ee9c266f51b82da3e361358a54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aliskerovof Aliskerov, Muniz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Aliskerov | 79c | 15,439$12,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,257.1 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Muniz | 20c | 15,422$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.83 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…9d99backed Muniz | 21c | 9,500$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Aliskerov | 80c | 4,360$3,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Muniz | 21c | 3,182$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.81 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Muniz | 22c | 3,000$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Muniz | 30c | 2,501$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Muniz | 20c | 2,463$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.51 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aliskerov | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Aliskerov | 79c | 1,606$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.28 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…2246backed Muniz | 22c | 1,573$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Aliskerov | 79c | 1,300$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Aliskerov | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…107abacked Aliskerov | 79c | 1,013$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aliskerov | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Aliskerov | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Muniz | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Aliskerov | 79c | 858.31$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.25 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Muniz | 25c | 666.66$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Aliskerov | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Aliskerov | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Aliskerov | 79c | 581.63$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Aliskerov | 77c | 567.04$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Aliskerov | 80c | 500$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Aliskerov | 79c | 498$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Aliskerov | 71c | 443.32$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf59…ff38backed Aliskerov | 65c | 399.85$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Aliskerov | 77c | 349.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Aliskerov | 77c | 332.91$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Muniz | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Aliskerov | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Muniz | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Aliskerov | 76c | 261.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Aliskerov | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1cd9backed Aliskerov | 68c | 247.05$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Muniz | 41c | 243.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Muniz | 17c | 232.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Aliskerov | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Aliskerov | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Aliskerov | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Muniz | 22c | 199$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Aliskerov | 59c | 190$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…b318backed Aliskerov | 80c | 179$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Aliskerov | 65c | 138.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Aliskerov | 80c | 137.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Aliskerov | 79c | 124.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Muniz | 19c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Aliskerov | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Aliskerov | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Aliskerov | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Aliskerov | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Aliskerov | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Muniz | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…d11cbacked Muniz | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Muniz | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Muniz | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Aliskerov | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Aliskerov | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Aliskerov | 76c | 62.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Muniz | 22c | 59.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Muniz | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Muniz | 19c | 56.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Aliskerov | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Muniz | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Aliskerov | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Aliskerov | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Aliskerov | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Aliskerov | 79c | 43.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Aliskerov | 79c | 40.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Aliskerov | 65c | 33.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Aliskerov | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Aliskerov | 55c | 30.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…78c5backed Muniz | 45c | 30.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Aliskerov | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…53d1backed Aliskerov | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aliskerov vs. Munizthis page
- Amorim vs. VianaAmorim won
- Blackshear vs. AlatengheiliBlackshear won
- Brown vs. DalbyBrown won
- Chandler vs. EdwardsEdwards won
- Chikadze vs. Onama Onama won
- Machado Garry vs. PratesMachado Garry won
- Pereira vs. MagomedovMagomedov won
- Schnell vs. FlickSchnell won
- Smith vs. Mingyang Mingyang won
- Wellmaker vs. SaaimanWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.