TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cortes-Acostaof Cortes-Acosta, Gaziev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01ba…b77abacked Cortes-Acosta58c49,623$28,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,722.7222259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Gaziev43c20,780$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,900.085440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cortes-Acosta60c17,201$10,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,888.326346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Gaziev42c12,210$5,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,094.8628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Gaziev39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.984040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Gaziev38c9,555$3,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,630.7737152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Cortes-Acosta57c8,832$5,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,798.576453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Cortes-Acosta62c7,968$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.825959.3%35 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Gaziev42c7,000$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Gaziev44c6,820$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.816951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Gaziev40c6,627$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Gaziev41c5,270$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.73943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Gaziev43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15011746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Gaziev42c4,762$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Cortes-Acosta60c4,171$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.665843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb44…e977backed Cortes-Acosta61c3,637$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.82757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Gaziev39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Cortes-Acosta55c2,970$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Gaziev23c2,807$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6521247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cortes-Acosta56c2,727$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.1218453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Cortes-Acosta60c2,726$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.224835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Cortes-Acosta55c2,505$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Cortes-Acosta58c2,432$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.6119154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x827f…3117backed Gaziev43c2,400$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Gaziev42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0e…1a33backed Gaziev43c2,300$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Gaziev41c2,100$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.4735826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Gaziev38c1,893$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.5221044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98c…bf06backed Cortes-Acosta56c1,888$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed Gaziev44c1,882$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8211833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Gaziev41c1,848$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.689228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Gaziev41c1,661$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.018220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Cortes-Acosta56c1,630$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.211861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Gaziev42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6303534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Cortes-Acosta62c1,400$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5326953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Cortes-Acosta62c1,339$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.5220954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Gaziev41c1,332$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Gaziev40c1,267$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.5920933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cortes-Acosta51c1,250$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.285244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Gaziev41c1,203$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.2342042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed Gaziev42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Cortes-Acosta62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.3726140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Gaziev50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Cortes-Acosta58c999.98$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.998751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Cortes-Acosta62c997.5$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38139959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Gaziev41c994.79$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.866533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Gaziev42c960.14$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.9611140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Cortes-Acosta60c832$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5817850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb14…bbdabacked Cortes-Acosta57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…94c7backed Cortes-Acosta57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fc…e9f3backed Cortes-Acosta57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c8…acddbacked Cortes-Acosta57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91e8…44c4backed Cortes-Acosta57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Gaziev40c800$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31836745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Gaziev41c777$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5723850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Cortes-Acosta61c750$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.53534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5fc…d802backed Gaziev40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Gaziev40c716.59$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.643158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Cortes-Acosta59c710.17$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.176756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32e…eeb4backed Cortes-Acosta57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Gaziev50c685.16$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.4790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cortes-Acosta60c669.49$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.498058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300e…fb95backed Gaziev46c666.06$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Gaziev39c658.63$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8710928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5470…3081backed Cortes-Acosta54c617.52$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ce…0a6fbacked Gaziev9c611.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Gaziev41c599.98$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9917158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Cortes-Acosta57c598.42$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.3248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Gaziev38c590$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x888c…e9ecbacked Cortes-Acosta57c548.95$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c24…a3d4backed Cortes-Acosta54c537.43$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…e0e1backed Cortes-Acosta59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.47850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Gaziev41c500.49$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.24425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Cortes-Acosta61c499.99$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1956462.5%40 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c62…d8d6backed Cortes-Acosta61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.89845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0552…791abacked Gaziev46c488.89$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Gaziev43c465.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7731855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38eb…a211backed Cortes-Acosta59c440.7$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.613663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02dc…ef17backed Cortes-Acosta62c411.29$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.291258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Gaziev40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Gaziev42c397.62$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1674946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd8…39b1backed Cortes-Acosta59c391.53$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.5310653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Cortes-Acosta61c389.74$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1528655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Cortes-Acosta58c363$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.463268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Gaziev42c347.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1618560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Cortes-Acosta59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9815139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Cortes-Acosta59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.988752.9%46 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Gaziev45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x012c…478ebacked Cortes-Acosta58c327.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.593357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c4…cfedbacked Cortes-Acosta55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf693…202fbacked Cortes-Acosta62c266.32$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.322860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Gaziev39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Cortes-Acosta61c255.74$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Gaziev45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.57843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe8…5f44backed Gaziev40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Gaziev40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Gaziev41c244.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4513940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Gaziev42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.816543.6%72 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee44…0082backed Gaziev42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2440…bf2ebacked Cortes-Acosta62c229.55$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.