TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof BetBoom Team, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$327,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,976 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29f9…e310backed Team Yandex46c36,661$16,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,868.2512256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked BetBoom Team54c33,758$18,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,144.4133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex44c16,621$7,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,364.6113155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Team Yandex45c11,483$5,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,355.412133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team54c8,073$4,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,377.881,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6c…30c5backed BetBoom Team70c6,971$4,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,851.423066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed BetBoom Team56c6,415$3,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.285044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8664…9981backed Team Yandex45c6,186$2,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,402.531747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed BetBoom Team56c5,941$3,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,326.923339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked BetBoom Team56c5,756$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.365137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Yandex41c4,137$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.4814947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Team Yandex45c4,025$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.674940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed BetBoom Team57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28027645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked BetBoom Team68c3,868$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.9910048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex30c3,812$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.392,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed BetBoom Team53c3,807$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked BetBoom Team32c3,387$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.261,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BetBoom Team64c3,198$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.5730138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed BetBoom Team55c3,172$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.26637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed BetBoom Team54c3,136$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.1218452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked BetBoom Team59c2,595$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.9211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Yandex26c2,503$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.1139936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Yandex46c2,357$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.948253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked BetBoom Team2c2,277$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.04200%0 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Team Yandex77c2,117$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.899645.8%44 W · 52 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Yandex49c2,029$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.9510451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Yandex44c2,010$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.8921847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Yandex45c2,004$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.4520159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked BetBoom Team56c1,962$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.868046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6540…d055backed Team Yandex46c1,863$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…d55dbacked BetBoom Team54c1,860$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked BetBoom Team62c1,618$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Yandex45c1,500$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BetBoom Team55c1,478$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.017047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Yandex48c1,471$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.6956848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Team Yandex68c1,375$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.0312256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70e9…adeabacked BetBoom Team11c1,339$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.83616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Yandex46c1,291$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.512459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed BetBoom Team18c1,228$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.012313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed BetBoom Team77c1,213$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.942958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23d…f322backed Team Yandex53c1,197$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.095459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Yandex32c1,151$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.2429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Yandex51c1,073$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.453652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Team Yandex39c1,028$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.292944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Yandex49c1,028$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.058239%32 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked BetBoom Team39c1,013$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9429160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked BetBoom Team2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team Yandex44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56012351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team53c947.3$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.8589749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked BetBoom Team37c947.2$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5434146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked BetBoom Team53c938.12$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked BetBoom Team55c935.7$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.312740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Team Yandex48c890.78$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.2813850%69 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Yandex46c875.78$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.9213262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Yandex58c869.21$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2136851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x935e…d6e4backed BetBoom Team71c862.88$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.62850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Team Yandex42c859.37$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.431478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+41.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked Team Yandex63c832.32$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.963655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Yandex33c822.41$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.8614251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb10…8062backed Team Yandex39c800$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.921735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed BetBoom Team54c799.99$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.9917146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…d7c1backed BetBoom Team54c741.29$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed BetBoom Team47c711.2$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.752755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed BetBoom Team58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked BetBoom Team51c681.92$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.4610833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked BetBoom Team5c680$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ea…7600backed BetBoom Team6c668.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Yandex38c652.77$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.7257355.5%318 W · 255 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked BetBoom Team50c635.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31885851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked BetBoom Team55c613.73$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.9612654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed BetBoom Team53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3187549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BetBoom Team51c582.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed BetBoom Team55c550$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.54763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad25…5473backed BetBoom Team22c550$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Team Yandex54c535$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.851936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed BetBoom Team40c510.83$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0434468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Team Yandex47c510.61$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.438728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Yandex52c505.02$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7120361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x94ea…f2dabacked Team Yandex40c495.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.73771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Yandex51c471.69$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1878541.7%327 W · 458 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Yandex41c462.51$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.2114515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4965…176fbacked BetBoom Team54c459.99$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.41942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed BetBoom Team9c450.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.444341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Yandex43c450$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3764…e02abacked BetBoom Team53c423.91$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+204.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed BetBoom Team55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked BetBoom Team47c392.35$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.535149%25 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed BetBoom Team55c364.75$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6131545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed BetBoom Team55c361.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20043647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed BetBoom Team56c357.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019756.9%112 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Team Yandex46c353.71$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BetBoom Team34c347.74$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2365625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…71e1backed Team Yandex49c334.39$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.541127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-57.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Team Yandex67c329.25$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7714537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Team Yandex77c300$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.172751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Team Yandex45c299.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.998037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team Yandex37c297.56$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.566142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed BetBoom Team58c294.36$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.021450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed BetBoom Team53c282.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.848557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed BetBoom Team50c281.41$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.966963.8%44 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.