TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,532 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed3f…0ab8backed Yes46c131$60 inLost-$60.268749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Yes46c125$58 inLost-$57.56855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes46c114$52 inLost-$52.449360.2%56 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Yes46c95$44 inLost-$43.79048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b40…93f4backed No54c40$22 inWon+$18.43658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5935…b8dabacked No54c34$18 inWon+$15.642568%17 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd4…9cebbacked No54c34$18 inWon+$15.642846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3add…e482backed No54c34$18 inWon+$15.642445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed No54c34$18 inWon+$15.642962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked No54c31$17 inWon+$14.263253.1%17 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14cd…1716backed No54c31$17 inWon+$14.263759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked No54c28$15 inWon+$12.884151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a4…05afbacked No54c27$15 inWon+$12.423250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc17…53b6backed No54c25$14 inWon+$11.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked No54c24$13 inWon+$11.043860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52cc…9998backed No54c20$11 inWon+$9.22347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a6…bbd5backed No54c20$11 inWon+$9.23554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…148bbacked No54c19$10 inWon+$8.742944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.