TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,371
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,371 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No68c692.22$467 inLost-$467.325,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Yes31c400$122 inWon+$27847354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Yes32c200$64 inWon+$13637755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed No44c128$56 inLost-$56.328752.9%46 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed No46c115$53 inLost-$52.97753.2%41 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked No44c107$47 inLost-$47.084957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked No44c84$37 inLost-$36.968050%40 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43dc…88cfbacked Yes56c59$33 inWon+$25.963551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed No44c58$26 inLost-$25.528749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb520…60bcbacked Yes56c38$21 inWon+$16.723053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Yes54c36$19 inWon+$16.562842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Yes54c32$17 inWon+$14.724252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Yes56c29$16 inWon+$12.764052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca65…6746backed Yes56c29$16 inWon+$12.762846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked Yes54c26$14 inWon+$11.963357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fba…dc55backed Yes56c26$15 inWon+$11.442254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Yes56c26$15 inWon+$11.444148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Yes56c23$13 inWon+$10.123956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Yes56c23$13 inWon+$10.123336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Yes56c22$12 inWon+$9.682748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6966…409bbacked Yes54c21$11 inWon+$9.663246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Yes56c21$12 inWon+$9.243764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26fc…2286backed Yes56c20$11 inWon+$8.85552.7%29 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacc…23c6backed Yes56c19$11 inWon+$8.362334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedc2…e450backed Yes56c19$11 inWon+$8.362152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.