TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,640 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No50c400$200 inLost-$2005,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Yes56c200$112 inWon+$8817554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Yes47c142$67 inWon+$75.268749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Yes47c120$56 inWon+$63.67353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No45c100$45 inLost-$452,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes47c84$39 inWon+$44.529050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Yes48c51$24 inWon+$26.528552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7606backed Yes54c48.19$26 inWon+$22.259848%47 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd647…9c8fbacked No53c40$21 inLost-$21.22835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc17…53b6backed No53c35$19 inLost-$18.552462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed No53c33$17 inLost-$17.493850%19 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed No53c33$17 inLost-$17.493043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77ec…4f9cbacked No52c32$17 inLost-$16.641747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked No53c29$15 inLost-$15.373161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed No53c28$15 inLost-$14.843441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed No53c28$15 inLost-$14.844850%24 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed No53c25$13 inLost-$13.251952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa27…dbdcbacked No53c24$13 inLost-$12.722864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09db…7384backed No53c21$11 inLost-$11.133366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc498…a396backed Yes54c19.99$11 inWon+$9.23164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.