TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Ben Shelton vs Adrian Mannarino

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mannarinoof Shelton, Mannarino
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$419,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$456,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…0a01backed Mannarino16c55,008$8,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,034.059935.4%35 W · 64 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Shelton35c42,937$15,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,060.945545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Mannarino16c30,654$4,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,749.3652844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Shelton33c30,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,90013934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…b5a8backed Mannarino20c20,347$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,247.461822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Mannarino16c15,586$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,078.8216140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Shelton65c14,437$9,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,429.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-89.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0f3…759dbacked Mannarino19c12,908$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.411127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Mannarino36c10,742$3,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,831.0511859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mannarino16c10,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.9915832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Mannarino30c9,554$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,647.9357939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Mannarino35c9,000$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,81028443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Mannarino28c7,000$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,030.0866949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Shelton74c6,719$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,005.031735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Shelton73c6,210$4,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,522.811450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shelton69c5,724$3,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,934.321,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Shelton75c5,372$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.033441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6149…dacfbacked Mannarino21c5,215$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,105.671250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Shelton80c5,098$4,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,067.421145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Shelton80c3,025$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.0717754.8%97 W · 80 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Mannarino36c2,778$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.7812335%43 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Shelton69c2,708$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86632141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Mannarino62c2,399$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.3912949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Shelton1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Mannarino18c2,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64012439.5%49 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Mannarino43c1,941$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.2537540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Mannarino17c1,933$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.8713653.7%73 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Shelton53c1,799$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.496747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shelton72c1,433$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.3811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Mannarino28c1,300$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.59245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Shelton43c1,291$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.4214933.6%50 W · 99 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Mannarino13c1,171$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.1115957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Shelton6c1,025$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608643%37 W · 49 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Mannarino15c997.84$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.1815452.6%81 W · 73 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Mannarino21c970.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.051369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc03…21eabacked Mannarino35c868.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mannarino13c865$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.5562742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Mannarino13c776.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.9238348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mannarino13c755.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.4795140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Shelton76c677.38$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-80.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x03db…c28bbacked Shelton80c670$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5341225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Shelton47c669.41$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.137744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Mannarino17c600$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49829634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Mannarino16c600$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50415724.8%39 W · 118 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Mannarino9c566.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.4632448.1%156 W · 168 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b1…f64abacked Mannarino20c505.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.056035%21 W · 39 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Mannarino33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33512552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Mannarino13c500$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43522629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3573…b6f9backed Mannarino17c472.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4142…1853backed Shelton45c440.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Shelton70c350.06$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.832,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Shelton63c333.81$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1831255.4%173 W · 139 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Mannarino16c312.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.332,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Mannarino19c305.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4714343.4%62 W · 81 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Mannarino8c255$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.625330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdc…7cddbacked Mannarino17c235.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.292951.7%15 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+66.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Mannarino14c223.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.7836040%144 W · 216 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Shelton47c214.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Shelton38c210$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.318548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Mannarino6c200$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa507…2468backed Mannarino34c194.12$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.121338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Mannarino29c190$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13513546.7%63 W · 72 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Mannarino21c168.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6536047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mannarino16c159.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13455143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Mannarino16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Mannarino51c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.43745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Mannarino29c110$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.242141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Shelton64c110$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1343948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Shelton75c105$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.752839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-39.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Mannarino21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Shelton46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4152750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0722…d131backed Shelton69c90$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.81457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed Mannarino32c90$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338e…9f49backed Shelton75c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd3…5b39backed Mannarino31c66.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6288…1bdcbacked Shelton50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Mannarino36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.562572%18 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed Mannarino23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.515246.7%71 W · 81 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a6…1198backed Mannarino71c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.317736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Shelton37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f4…8384backed Shelton51c27.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.