NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Hornets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7fb4b0f22bf6df99b936d6f064ca5a565ae69509a6b724781a93d8814b85424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x079e…8254backed Hornets | 57c | 21,000$11,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,031.83 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…6312backed Knicks | 43c | 6,550$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,816.52 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Knicks | 43c | 4,362$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Knicks | 43c | 2,513$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.44 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Knicks | 43c | 2,233$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.38 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Knicks | 43c | 1,011$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.61 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Knicks | 43c | 966.76$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.71 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Knicks | 43c | 633.81$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.25 | 187 | 49.2%92 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Knicks | 43c | 415.29$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Knicks | 43c | 367$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.81 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Knicks | 43c | 268.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Knicks | 43c | 248.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Knicks | 43c | 167.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Knicks | 43c | 159.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Knicks | 43c | 149.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks | 44c | 135.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2821…72d6backed Knicks | 43c | 99.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Knicks | 43c | 46.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Hornets | 57c | 29.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…1bd1backed Hornets | 55c | 18.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-8.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. KnicksHornets won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-10.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-11.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-12.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-13.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-14.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.