TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Envy vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Envyof Team Envy, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$378,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$392,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Team Envy41c44,444$18,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,221.9324145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed FURIA Esports59c42,833$25,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,271.1854751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Team Envy41c42,480$17,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,024.7717948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Envy38c26,248$9,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,309.2640945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed FURIA Esports69c20,000$13,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,799.9425554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed FURIA Esports57c16,684$9,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,508.1934356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FURIA Esports72c16,258$11,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,713.856038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8c9…be3cbacked FURIA Esports68c14,499$9,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,814.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Envy45c14,063$6,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,778.877164.8%46 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Team Envy31c11,124$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,675.232766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+40%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FURIA Esports59c8,148$4,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,803.251,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA Esports68c7,770$5,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,24653159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Envy31c7,000$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,83010455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Envy32c6,524$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,465.7746326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FURIA Esports69c6,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,14052155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA Esports66c5,445$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.7965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FURIA Esports61c4,537$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,779.5256357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Team Envy25c3,960$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970.4910946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Envy39c3,695$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.8393049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Team Envy31c3,500$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.963243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Team Envy14c3,446$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.45238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Team Envy55c3,259$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.6126650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FURIA Esports69c2,777$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.6994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA Esports70c2,725$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.993148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FURIA Esports45c2,494$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.5344342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Team Envy41c2,088$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.119546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FURIA Esports55c2,074$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.4853355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked FURIA Esports66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Envy32c1,715$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.7654342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FURIA Esports60c1,665$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.5368949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed FURIA Esports69c1,655$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.848538.8%33 W · 52 L-11.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Team Envy28c1,641$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.29737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA Esports58c1,592$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.768458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FURIA Esports63c1,529$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.261,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports57c1,501$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.151,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae3f…defebacked Team Envy53c1,483$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.743174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed FURIA Esports65c1,329$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.1666438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed FURIA Esports58c1,299$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.465464.8%35 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed FURIA Esports59c1,293$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.374932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Envy34c1,180$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.1935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Team Envy46c1,127$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.896050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Team Envy37c1,117$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.534161%25 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5419…43f9backed FURIA Esports69c1,100$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Envy31c1,100$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7595156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed FURIA Esports65c1,071$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FURIA Esports60c1,068$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.910455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed FURIA Esports28c1,065$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.219240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Team Envy42c1,045$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.243551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed FURIA Esports58c1,039$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004271.4%30 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed FURIA Esports69c1,031$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.3115843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d32…ae18backed FURIA Esports59c1,017$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports62c999.85$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.1524250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked FURIA Esports23c996.29$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.155062%31 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Team Envy42c948.62$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.2413355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Envy30c929$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.341734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed FURIA Esports69c924.99$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.242630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Team Envy26c919.95$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.4132245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbd68…0f6bbacked FURIA Esports58c890.17$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed FURIA Esports23c883.58$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20533346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed FURIA Esports61c858.22$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.513348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked FURIA Esports59c830.72$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FURIA Esports57c799.98$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9933153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed FURIA Esports69c748.26$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.33240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Team Envy37c734.6$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.661040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FURIA Esports64c729$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.91,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports58c707.01$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.881134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Envy37c694.45$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.7449255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Team Envy17c693.07$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.0711445.6%52 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed FURIA Esports12c691.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.587044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed FURIA Esports69c655.58$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.352040%8 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed FURIA Esports63c631$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.286930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x560c…9cffbacked FURIA Esports69c624.85$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.911233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.6wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-52.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FURIA Esports23c603.25$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0339646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed FURIA Esports4c599.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.822018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Envy45c593.75$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9232462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked FURIA Esports3c584.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.527047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Team Envy31c527.84$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.2112745.7%58 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked FURIA Esports59c509$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.311560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed FURIA Esports10c508.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-53.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Envy43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28532047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed FURIA Esports69c499.94$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.965263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x986b…bdc6backed Team Envy76c486$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.731291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick74cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed FURIA Esports30c470$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14114454.2%78 W · 66 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Envy39c466.22$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.6974642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1245…e0afbacked Team Envy32c461.66$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.93933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FURIA Esports60c451$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.451,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Team Envy66c439.4$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1319751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked FURIA Esports69c434.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed FURIA Esports59c423.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed FURIA Esports62c415.87$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0822344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa96e…d0dabacked FURIA Esports4c409.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Envy42c406.59$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.8560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked FURIA Esports3c404.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5715217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed FURIA Esports59c403$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.775648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed FURIA Esports16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644528.9%13 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed FURIA Esports69c383.38$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.532138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Team Envy33c381.51$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.893066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+45.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA Esports61c369.48$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.331,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Envy42c369.31$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.251749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed FURIA Esports71c352.11$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25023463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.