Earnings · resolved market
Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9794d2a4b066f143edaa6728bd2946e54e8c2fedb56244ab6a3d52cbac5dec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 1,369$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…336cbacked No | 37c | 976.48$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 68c | 850.16$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.27 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 21c | 767.14$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 75c | 667.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 21c | 612.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 18c | 601.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 69c | 541.71$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…f1a8backed No | 29c | 460.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 18c | 428.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 395.35$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 27c | 365.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 80c | 305.61$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 17c | 289.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 74c | 285.61$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 16c | 276.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed No | 38c | 263.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…c904backed Yes | 79c | 254.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 19c | 249.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…2593backed No | 17c | 246$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 23c | 244.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 23c | 188.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 186.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 172.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes | 64c | 156.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked No | 23c | 152.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 19c | 149.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…713abacked Yes | 78c | 134.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd1…8f9cbacked Yes | 79c | 126.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 28c | 124.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 21c | 116.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 37c | 108.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 106$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 77c | 103.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…d0fcbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 20c | 93.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 91.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 66c | 90.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…c89bbacked Yes | 80c | 83.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…a472backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 40c | 78.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 27c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 75.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 22c | 75.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 31c | 73.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 20c | 69.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 70c | 67.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 68c | 65.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…0c73backed No | 22c | 62.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 24c | 51.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f9…6f5bbacked Yes | 72c | 50.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…6b6abacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b5…c52dbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…32f8backed Yes | 65c | 45.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…7d41backed Yes | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b83…e829backed No | 49c | 38.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 78c | 36.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…afbebacked No | 35c | 34.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…0c50backed No | 39c | 33.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…517cbacked Yes | 78c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…fabfbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…942bbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…f0d2backed Yes | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 45c | 29.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…6a83backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…2bfdbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…c13abacked Yes | 79c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…bf5fbacked Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.