AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb049daa3078a12fb0e377b345eb4f1231e56005201bb7271058bb72a307c08b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 14c | 1,635$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,254$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 676.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 11c | 540.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 533.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes | 6c | 504.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9dc1backed Yes | 12c | 422.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes | 5c | 319.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…0a5dbacked Yes | 9c | 269$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 19c | 259.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 6c | 258.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf63b…e23dbacked Yes | 11c | 257.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 246.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 219$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 199.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 195.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 144$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 28c | 94.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 83.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…c8e2backed Yes | 28c | 72.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…657fbacked Yes | 25c | 69.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 64.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 63.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 39.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 76c | 27.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…0a24backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 18 and May 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.