NBA · resolved market
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4cfed54525348fb00900d461dd8bccc7cd06cea323f3ed2af3b0411e2780e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1626…9e8dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,328$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c55…98ffbacked Yes | 40c | 7,329$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,918.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 60c | 5,429$3,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171.77 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 40c | 1,786$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.81 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 60c | 1,501$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.24 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked No | 61c | 1,160$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.52 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 60c | 690.34$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 27c | 269.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 42c | 238.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed Yes | 42c | 233.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 64c | 202.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Yes | 42c | 155.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -10.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…b63fbacked Yes | 42c | 115.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed No | 60c | 109$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 60c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed No | 57c | 87.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed No | 60c | 54.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 33c | 46.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…c072backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc5…838abacked Yes | 46c | 39.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Yes | 31c | 38.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed No | 73c | 34.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 31.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…1fa3backed No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 61c | 27.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…baa1backed No | 67c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Knicks vs. 76ersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5Under won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5Under won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Paul George: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.