NBA · resolved market
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54598e9f0c2154f8d2df283d7d906f9c698b1a424ca0e33e8e9ca933302d4535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,120$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.2 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 33c | 1,107$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.41 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Yes | 68c | 873.64$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.03 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb5…91d7backed Yes | 59c | 504.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 60c | 333.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 42c | 259.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 41c | 156.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…d844backed Yes | 64c | 109.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed No | 14c | 106.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 39c | 95.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…b63fbacked Yes | 58c | 86.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…3f39backed Yes | 60c | 83.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…30abbacked No | 41c | 54.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 38c | 52.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 38.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Yes | 57c | 32.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 33c | 32.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 62c | 30.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…8ec6backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paul George: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Knicks vs. 76ersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5Under won
- Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5Under won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.