TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Sharper Esport vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCT Pacific Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ONSIDE GAMINGof Sharper Esport, ONSIDE GAMING
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked ONSIDE GAMING53c15,586$8,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,325.3429255.8%163 W · 129 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Sharper Esport47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70010455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked ONSIDE GAMING54c4,503$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.5326838.1%102 W · 166 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Sharper Esport46c2,876$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.961060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed ONSIDE GAMING52c2,849$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.6426050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Sharper Esport51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.5232445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x115a…a690backed Sharper Esport46c2,308$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.681050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ONSIDE GAMING54c1,875$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.6625761.1%157 W · 100 L+22.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed ONSIDE GAMING49c1,650$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8402737%10 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed ONSIDE GAMING54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5528842%37 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ONSIDE GAMING54c1,120$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.376063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Sharper Esport47c1,111$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.1755152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Sharper Esport47c910$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.4428742.9%123 W · 164 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed Sharper Esport35c900.93$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.2714351%73 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x76e8…f211backed Sharper Esport47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed Sharper Esport48c833.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007949.4%39 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed ONSIDE GAMING67c781.69$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.966462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sharper Esport36c763.21$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.146526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked Sharper Esport46c760$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Sharper Esport47c597.02$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2a…8687backed Sharper Esport46c570$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed ONSIDE GAMING54c545.24$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8125756%144 W · 113 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Sharper Esport48c520.85$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.017544%33 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Sharper Esport46c520$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.24845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Sharper Esport47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2356642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Sharper Esport46c429.69$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6618647.8%89 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f8…2239backed Sharper Esport46c401.15$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Sharper Esport47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1886570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc09b…d784backed Sharper Esport47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d39…5408backed ONSIDE GAMING54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d9…ac79backed Sharper Esport47c388.51$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.62853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked ONSIDE GAMING70c379.04$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5151344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed ONSIDE GAMING49c373.59$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.7427146.9%127 W · 144 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Sharper Esport51c373.14$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19034853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Sharper Esport47c356$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4360454%326 W · 278 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Sharper Esport48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508748.3%42 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Sharper Esport48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508251.2%42 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Sharper Esport74c301.39$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.033655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Sharper Esport47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1416253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ONSIDE GAMING54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13827145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked ONSIDE GAMING49c269.84$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Sharper Esport47c261.57$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9463948%307 W · 332 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Sharper Esport21c227.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3260423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed ONSIDE GAMING51c218$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4566638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ae…9e60backed ONSIDE GAMING47c211.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Sharper Esport48c208.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.017753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Sharper Esport55c208.13$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.41,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed ONSIDE GAMING75c195$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.756137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Sharper Esport48c193.35$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.819145.1%41 W · 50 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa940…9bf1backed ONSIDE GAMING50c188.86$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Sharper Esport43c185.35$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.321,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e7…6036backed ONSIDE GAMING54c181.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9766…a41dbacked ONSIDE GAMING50c179.58$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed ONSIDE GAMING26c167.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.36544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ONSIDE GAMING50c164$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1699945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Sharper Esport42c161.45$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0126932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Sharper Esport48c156.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36a2…c02bbacked Sharper Esport35c152.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbb…a2cdbacked Sharper Esport50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Sharper Esport52c143.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.732958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed ONSIDE GAMING79c142.14$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.319538.9%37 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ONSIDE GAMING49c141.2$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.628942.9%124 W · 165 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed ONSIDE GAMING59c140$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4528740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Sharper Esport41c138.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0342051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Sharper Esport46c135.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.333834.2%13 W · 25 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Sharper Esport47c128.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3928352.3%148 W · 135 L-1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb17…c84bbacked Sharper Esport46c127$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked Sharper Esport52c125.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.433745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Sharper Esport45c125.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3185138.1%324 W · 527 L-51.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fc5…b698backed ONSIDE GAMING68c116.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.265050%25 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…6b2bbacked ONSIDE GAMING54c110$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.61080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Sharper Esport51c108.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7943459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Sharper Esport46c108$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.682343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Sharper Esport47c106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.825147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Sharper Esport43c103.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9830835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed Sharper Esport46c102.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.427544%33 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Sharper Esport32c101.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3317139.8%68 W · 103 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Sharper Esport49c101.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Sharper Esport56c100.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.521,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed Sharper Esport48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef1…4a76backed Sharper Esport46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468653.5%46 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sharper Esport45c95.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.781834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed ONSIDE GAMING75c95$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.754647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked ONSIDE GAMING53c94.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.740454.7%221 W · 183 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb770…3f81backed ONSIDE GAMING26c83.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.22330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked ONSIDE GAMING76c79.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0511243.8%49 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d30…d31dbacked Sharper Esport55c79.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.341435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Sharper Esport60c78.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.749455.3%273 W · 221 L+23.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Sharper Esport35c77.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.199238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1585…c3b7backed ONSIDE GAMING34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.533857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d0…7f26backed ONSIDE GAMING35c71.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.081723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe200…1b78backed Sharper Esport18c69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf5…1095backed Sharper Esport60c68.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0412171.1%86 W · 35 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Sharper Esport40c67.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8116144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Sharper Esport51c65.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2370543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed ONSIDE GAMING54c64.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.574161%25 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed Sharper Esport54c63.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4815160.3%91 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb695…f967backed Sharper Esport47c63.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b7…52bebacked Sharper Esport50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.052458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked Sharper Esport52c57.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020546.8%96 W · 109 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.