Fifa International · resolved market
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb89e3541685167fedb6a65c8320390414eeee449f8dd2acdc3290b0d3d5dfaca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 76c | 1,781$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.36 | 771 | 52.8%407 W · 364 L | +17.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…56f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,308$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 290 | 18.6%54 W · 236 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 76c | 978.99$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.96 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875f…aaddbacked Yes | 24c | 833.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 23c | 550.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 522.24$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 77c | 463$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 77c | 424.56$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…57acbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 11%12 W · 97 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…9c3bbacked Yes | 24c | 400.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 76c | 349.98$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 303 | 21.5%65 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…25c3backed Yes | 24c | 184.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 78c | 162.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 159.63$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…6128backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4496…97c0backed Yes | 23c | 142$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c6a6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 291 | 38.5%112 W · 179 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 97 | 67%65 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 27c | 84.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 24c | 73.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 79c | 72.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 79c | 66.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 78c | 58.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…41cdbacked Yes | 20c | 50.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…69e2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2716…a6f4backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsthis page
- Deniz Undav: 1+ assistsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ shotsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ assistsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ shotsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ shotsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ assistsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ shotsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assistsYes won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jamie Leweling: 2+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assistsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assistsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 1+ goalsYes won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ assistsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 4+ shotsNo won
- Leon Goretzka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leon Goretzka: 2+ assistsNo won
- Leon Goretzka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Maximilian Beier: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assistsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.