Deniz Undav: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe740da7c12e43f88b3d07ff9e80e1bd915bc23a082962038f49f16404b9b98dc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,192 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafac…8730backed Yes	12c	20,432$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes	12c	2,970$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	454	28%127 W · 327 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed Yes	12c	2,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	97	52.6%51 W · 46 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe6…6049backed Yes	12c	958.33$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	113	16.8%19 W · 94 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f35…ee57backed Yes	12c	937.54$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.05	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e31…50f4backed Yes	12c	841.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7461…5cc5backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	11c	510.56$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.82	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc977…56f1backed Yes	10c	498.48$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	108	23.1%25 W · 83 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f72…56b8backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3670…18e8backed Yes	12c	425$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.27	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	11c	418.12$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.63	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-4.3wins	-0.13per pick	21cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	11c	318.18$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6434…72b6backed Yes	11c	309.09$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb542…f5f1backed Yes	6c	306.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes	12c	291.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5273…69f5backed Yes	5c	290.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	101	39.6%40 W · 61 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	135	45.9%62 W · 73 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…9136backed Yes	10c	190.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	101	46.5%47 W · 54 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3607…c427backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	138	33.3%46 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	165	35.2%58 W · 107 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	155	22.6%35 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fc…022bbacked Yes	11c	178$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	91	29.7%27 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032b…9d22backed Yes	11c	172.73$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6743…471dbacked Yes	11c	167.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes	13c	155$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	199	35.2%70 W · 129 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4498…078dbacked Yes	11c	154.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	11c	137.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f84…be62backed Yes	11c	127.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbae…9a39backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	131	40.5%53 W · 78 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	23c	85.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	75c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Deniz Undav: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event