Fifa International · resolved market
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce3e78ef2bad11a05e8b927e5c18feaa962fc13e5168d5b7dd1a7f882dc8006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 1c | 2,830$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 73c | 1,118$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.23 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…afa4backed Yes | 25c | 1,050$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…e5a3backed Yes | 29c | 1,037$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488e…ab99backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 74c | 896.09$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.28 | 771 | 52.8%407 W · 364 L | +17.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 70c | 842.45$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.74 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 75c | 732.62$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.89 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 579.62$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…32c7backed Yes | 30c | 506.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c6a6backed No | 70c | 499.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 70c | 461.17$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.35 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 71c | 427.67$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 4c | 396.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…57acbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 11%12 W · 97 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 71c | 367.97$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4e0cbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 29c | 326.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 24c | 315.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 198 | 23.7%47 W · 151 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes | 28c | 168.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 272 | 42.3%115 W · 157 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…05adbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…544cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 97.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 89.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…59b5backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x770d…ca11backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 76.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…808ebacked No | 72c | 70.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 73c | 47.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 97 | 67%65 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 72c | 41.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…9a4abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 77c | 33.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…653abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfd…038bbacked No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 364 | 23.6%86 W · 278 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…d8e9backed No | 76c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsthis page
- Deniz Undav: 1+ assistsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ shotsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ assistsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ shotsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ shotsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ assistsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ shotsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assistsYes won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jamie Leweling: 2+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assistsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assistsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 1+ goalsYes won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ assistsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 4+ shotsNo won
- Leon Goretzka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leon Goretzka: 2+ assistsNo won
- Leon Goretzka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Maximilian Beier: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assistsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.