MLB · resolved market
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe6304df5a6cbec5a631443c407678848364c39fc38e88aea24b6bf47412b57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3918…b552backed Yes | 0c | 26,376$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…dd89backed Yes | 1c | 24,117$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…9f01backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…7c69backed Yes | 1c | 5,443$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…1f6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,443$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2667…b8a0backed Yes | 0c | 4,598$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…2759backed Yes | 1c | 4,087$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 235 | 45.1%106 W · 129 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 1c | 4,043$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +374.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…d5edbacked Yes | 0c | 3,716$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf106…6710backed Yes | 1c | 3,629$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…6e84backed Yes | 1c | 3,420$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b384backed Yes | 2c | 3,341$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,241$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bb…2a9ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,190$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0918…2d34backed Yes | 2c | 2,453$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…06bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,038$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…f194backed Yes | 1c | 2,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d39…81f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,940$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…55a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,775$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,608$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8da…15c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,559$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…a995backed Yes | 2c | 1,430$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,823.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…b61cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,389$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 1c | 1,249$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631f…c204backed Yes | 2c | 1,189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…1bd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +448.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff51…402dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,094$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…5b32backed Yes | 2c | 1,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…85fbbacked Yes | 1c | 999.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 987.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…2666backed Yes | 2c | 947.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b19…bac4backed Yes | 2c | 887$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…cf0cbacked Yes | 2c | 863$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af8…6293backed Yes | 1c | 813.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…4c4abacked Yes | 2c | 776$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…0e28backed Yes | 2c | 754$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0730…a73fbacked Yes | 2c | 745$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +825.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54dd…6c09backed Yes | 2c | 730$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9e…3cf1backed Yes | 2c | 688$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +657.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cae…a148backed Yes | 2c | 675$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…6178backed Yes | 2c | 672$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…51febacked Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?this page
- Will Australia win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Brazil win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Canada win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Colombia win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Cuba win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Great Britain win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Israel win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Mexico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Nicaragua win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Panama win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.