TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kody Steeleof Dom Mar Fan, Kody Steele
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Dom Mar Fan41c51,308$21,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,036.453447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Kody Steele72c15,488$11,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.1153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Kody Steele59c15,000$8,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,15020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kody Steele61c12,345$7,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,850.824957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Kody Steele59c10,006$5,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,102.526142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Kody Steele64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9612052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Dom Mar Fan40c4,354$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.628940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Dom Mar Fan36c4,334$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.279241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Dom Mar Fan38c3,825$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.523756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Kody Steele57c3,586$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.1410255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf84…0b5ebacked Dom Mar Fan43c3,356$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Kody Steele59c3,356$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.934447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1918…20d1backed Kody Steele59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2302650%13 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Kody Steele62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.987159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kody Steele58c2,655$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.1910664.2%68 W · 38 L+13.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Kody Steele71c2,500$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.299949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3e…11c0backed Dom Mar Fan1c2,488$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.881040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Kody Steele64c2,146$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.845349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Kody Steele61c2,129$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.315273.1%38 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+40.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Kody Steele75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Dom Mar Fan41c1,986$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.3115552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Dom Mar Fan2c1,950$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kody Steele65c1,741$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.4735848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Dom Mar Fan42c1,576$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.8220233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Dom Mar Fan1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Dom Mar Fan1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Dom Mar Fan1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Dom Mar Fan38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Dom Mar Fan44c1,237$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Kody Steele58c1,204$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.991450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Kody Steele64c1,196$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.716246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Kody Steele56c1,113$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.61952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Kody Steele58c1,032$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.569756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Dom Mar Fan36c1,020$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.0522661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Dom Mar Fan29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29016746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Dom Mar Fan1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Kody Steele58c963.76$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.783357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Kody Steele65c873.01$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.523732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aab…9ae0backed Dom Mar Fan46c841.3$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.045752.6%30 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Dom Mar Fan35c834.8$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1828849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbba…c191backed Kody Steele59c640$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.4887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+67.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07dd…029bbacked Dom Mar Fan25c620.85$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2110351.5%53 W · 50 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Dom Mar Fan41c613.62$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5816156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Dom Mar Fan40c561.46$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2244643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Kody Steele64c525.31$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.115156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked Kody Steele59c488.14$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.143964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b1b…65d7backed Kody Steele65c460$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1612458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Kody Steele58c450$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18936655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea8e…ee37backed Kody Steele74c438.46$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.13060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd578…a365backed Dom Mar Fan36c422.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Dom Mar Fan37c409.21$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15051533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f2…4470backed Kody Steele67c399.76$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Kody Steele58c391.1$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2616851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08db…cf71backed Dom Mar Fan25c382$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.53565.7%23 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Dom Mar Fan25c381.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.420837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb925…0f4abacked Kody Steele58c369.98$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.395335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Dom Mar Fan38c356.39$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.181070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Kody Steele57c349.91$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9613144.3%58 W · 73 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Kody Steele59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9810253.9%55 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Kody Steele77c337.62$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.659250%46 W · 46 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked Dom Mar Fan37c326.59$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.841656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…d123backed Kody Steele64c317$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.25942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Dom Mar Fan42c297.84$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.021650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…a55ebacked Dom Mar Fan37c292.41$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911652.6%61 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kody Steele65c284.49$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9313951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Dom Mar Fan37c268.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4548…5b8abacked Dom Mar Fan38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Kody Steele49c262.18$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.062454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Dom Mar Fan43c261.63$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Kody Steele57c250$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.518644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Kody Steele57c249.59$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.456254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Dom Mar Fan44c248.95$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.559637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Dom Mar Fan42c246.6$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5713041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x980c…74cebacked Kody Steele59c245.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.764151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Dom Mar Fan43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Dom Mar Fan44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Dom Mar Fan36c218.31$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.594639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Dom Mar Fan11c212.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.284146.3%19 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+46.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kody Steele57c206.08$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.688754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Kody Steele58c190.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e13…c506backed Dom Mar Fan42c181.8$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa24…a75cbacked Dom Mar Fan43c174.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaca…0d85backed Dom Mar Fan37c173.91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Kody Steele59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Dom Mar Fan16c148.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Dom Mar Fan32c144.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4812048.3%58 W · 62 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Kody Steele68c144.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4126569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Dom Mar Fan38c144.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2413646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Kody Steele37c144$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.561241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Dom Mar Fan34c139.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.032142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Dom Mar Fan36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507631.6%24 W · 52 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed Dom Mar Fan36c138.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Kody Steele59c132.54$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.347842.3%33 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Dom Mar Fan38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20b…3ae4backed Kody Steele58c129.31$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.311376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+35.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked Dom Mar Fan36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f63…89f3backed Kody Steele58c124.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.492931%9 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Kody Steele59c120.97$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.372958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Dom Mar Fan42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Kody Steele59c118.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6417841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.