Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf3de7feb2f39bb218f18eb22e1cb7c41ab67c49196a30b01d2c7925c6276a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 1,465$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 45c | 709.11$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.3 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 638.69$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 480.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 427.34$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 352.35$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 331.56$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 330.65$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.83 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 26c | 306.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.46 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 290$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 250.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 247.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 233.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 227.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 215.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 207.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 198.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 189$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 14c | 175.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 163.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 149.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 146.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 146.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked Yes | 55c | 144.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 39c | 142.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 128.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 75c | 127.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 22c | 124.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 119.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 114.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 106$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 102.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 101.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 97.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 96.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 80.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 41c | 80.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 73.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 28c | 72.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 72.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 72c | 71.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 62.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 56.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 50.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 35c | 50.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 49c | 48.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 48.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 77c | 46.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 45.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 30c | 42.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…c25dbacked Yes | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 26c | 41.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 68c | 41.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 61c | 36.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 32.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 65c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 29.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 39c | 28.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 28.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 27.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2211…7458backed No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 24.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 23.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 22.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 66c | 16.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…fababacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…8fd0backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.