Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdce6f746eed7ebadbd4dcd13498fa612465a625942d6e77e2882346bc26da23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 710.02$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 546.63$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 76c | 407.38$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 351.53$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 60c | 344.01$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 39c | 299.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 51c | 287.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 276.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 260.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 40c | 247.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 66c | 229.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 227.22$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 217.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 199.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 32c | 185.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 36c | 175.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 165$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 34c | 159.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 158.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 157.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 64c | 157.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 64c | 155.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 129.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 21c | 125.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 37c | 119.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 119.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 38c | 114.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 114.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 106.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 106.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 87.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 87.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 85.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 57c | 84.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 82.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 79.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 21c | 78.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 77.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 46c | 71.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 70.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 30c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 22c | 65.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 39c | 61.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 55.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 35c | 55.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 54.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 52.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 52.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 40c | 50.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 35c | 47.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 46.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 45.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 44.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 66c | 41.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 54c | 41.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 38.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 40c | 37.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 40c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 36.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 71c | 33.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 32.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 45c | 31.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 30.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 30.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 36c | 29.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 29.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 24.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 62c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.