TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs G2 Gozen (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Mates GCof Gentle Mates GC, G2 Gozen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,815 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed G2 Gozen43c6,450$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,773.6125554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9283…4277backed Gentle Mates GC56c4,247$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Gentle Mates GC60c1,242$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.2228743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Gentle Mates GC55c1,231$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.913450%17 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked G2 Gozen44c1,200$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5264542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed G2 Gozen27c1,198$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.834271.4%30 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Gozen12c1,189$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.161,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gentle Mates GC53c1,147$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.4844342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked G2 Gozen47c1,063$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked G2 Gozen17c986.86$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.557443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates GC74c901.5$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.911,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked G2 Gozen18c832.19$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4720138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed G2 Gozen48c829.55$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Gentle Mates GC60c770.51$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.0310946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Gentle Mates GC53c609.1$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.125453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked G2 Gozen10c540.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.761,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed G2 Gozen64c466.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked G2 Gozen47c465$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Gentle Mates GC56c445$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7396245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed G2 Gozen19c390$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.523733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf400…dc01backed Gentle Mates GC57c372.81$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa5…05bbbacked Gentle Mates GC55c361.94$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.842040%8 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe247…edf1backed Gentle Mates GC57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+73.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed G2 Gozen45c335.87$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9515038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked G2 Gozen45c288.08$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9524551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Gentle Mates GC52c286.71$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.623655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked G2 Gozen46c274.72$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.378334.9%29 W · 54 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed G2 Gozen28c262.09$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked G2 Gozen14c255.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked G2 Gozen18c252.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5915232.9%50 W · 102 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Gozen16c251.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.170043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed Gentle Mates GC80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Gentle Mates GC70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7514552.4%76 W · 69 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Gentle Mates GC54c249.97$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9936648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked G2 Gozen44c234.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3812143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked G2 Gozen8c219.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.091,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Gentle Mates GC77c208.18$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4650944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Gentle Mates GC53c206.49$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2513661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Gentle Mates GC53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Gentle Mates GC56c197.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.58955.1%49 W · 40 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed G2 Gozen53c189$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010664.2%68 W · 38 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed G2 Gozen46c184.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3493148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Gentle Mates GC77c183.45$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.149255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92df…7a08backed G2 Gozen31c183.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610151.5%52 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Gentle Mates GC56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5762856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Gentle Mates GC56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5713148.1%63 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Gentle Mates GC56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5719945.2%90 W · 109 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Gentle Mates GC77c178.07$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.371,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed G2 Gozen43c175.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6723055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe426…f4ffbacked G2 Gozen46c167.42$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.235349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed G2 Gozen43c165.03$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.415147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Gentle Mates GC52c160$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.86043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc475…8eefbacked G2 Gozen44c159.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Gentle Mates GC53c156.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.618647.8%89 W · 97 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed G2 Gozen45c153.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5256551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Gentle Mates GC48c150.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7710548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed G2 Gozen47c147$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5622346.6%104 W · 119 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Gozen44c142.79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8351749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed G2 Gozen11c142$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513158%76 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43c…9c34backed G2 Gozen14c140.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…1523backed Gentle Mates GC54c138.89$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.892860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Gentle Mates GC58c138.28$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7454342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Gentle Mates GC75c134.31$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.24666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6908…d2f4backed G2 Gozen16c126.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Gentle Mates GC53c125.31$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8984838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4114…f750backed Gentle Mates GC74c122.62$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.881241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed G2 Gozen44c113.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea9…9248backed Gentle Mates GC55c110.91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9111159.5%66 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3c…9f22backed Gentle Mates GC57c110.53$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5312149.6%60 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed G2 Gozen45c109$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0518641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Gentle Mates GC56c107.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1216547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed G2 Gozen46c106.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5828241.1%116 W · 166 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed Gentle Mates GC57c105.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.825851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked G2 Gozen47c105.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5119551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Gentle Mates GC55c104.9$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.228252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc4…306fbacked G2 Gozen44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked G2 Gozen22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed G2 Gozen21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53fd…b7a9backed G2 Gozen18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Gozen29c98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Gentle Mates GC52c95.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4466650.8%338 W · 328 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a4…d44cbacked Gentle Mates GC56c89.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.433154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08d…7b1bbacked Gentle Mates GC57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.723644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked G2 Gozen15c85.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512825%7 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39a8…47dbbacked G2 Gozen18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Gentle Mates GC76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3834571%245 W · 100 L-1.5wins0.00per pick71cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Gentle Mates GC72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.440254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed G2 Gozen20c79.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4777929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ed8…2c70backed Gentle Mates GC55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7313261.4%81 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed Gentle Mates GC56c69.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6413243.2%57 W · 75 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8072…c60abacked Gentle Mates GC74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4290…af07backed G2 Gozen45c66.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+29.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Gentle Mates GC70c66.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8914852.7%78 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed G2 Gozen47c65.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0263447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x736e…92babacked G2 Gozen20c64.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.865030%15 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed G2 Gozen46c63.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3619439.2%76 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…f252backed Gentle Mates GC57c61.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Gentle Mates GC74c58.6$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2337545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Gentle Mates GC79c55.49$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7933947.8%162 W · 177 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2edf…f14fbacked Gentle Mates GC56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.576953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.