AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc38584189103fb161e22386ce801ce629e9f8f2ee10acd99b3c7a6392db32b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 1,315$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 10c | 920.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 14c | 725.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 9c | 685.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 623.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 596.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Yes | 79c | 506.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 456.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 14c | 425.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 7c | 420.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 395$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 384.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 384$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 12c | 359$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 302.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 271.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 19c | 257$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 204$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 16c | 137.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 12c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 21c | 73.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…c51ebacked No | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 19c | 55.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 60c | 44.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ea7abacked Yes | 76c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.