CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Fluxo W7M - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e9fbe597f99877ba03b55f02a1a37a81b85f47df65754afb1da74c2f8e5c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BESTIAof BESTIA, Fluxo W7M
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fluxo W7M | 49c | 2,404$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.78 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Fluxo W7M | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 574 | 0%0 W · 574 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed BESTIA | 42c | 1,428$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.24 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Fluxo W7M | 34c | 1,390$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.04 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Fluxo W7M | 38c | 1,069$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.49 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked BESTIA | 64c | 905.66$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.48 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked BESTIA | 63c | 685$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.01 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed BESTIA | 56c | 629.59$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.85 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed BESTIA | 39c | 622.11$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.95 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fluxo W7M | 34c | 578.93$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…52eebacked Fluxo W7M | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked BESTIA | 46c | 479.51$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.01 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fe…5cbfbacked Fluxo W7M | 35c | 439.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Fluxo W7M | 28c | 379.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed BESTIA | 57c | 357$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fluxo W7M | 29c | 349.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Fluxo W7M | 36c | 286.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Fluxo W7M | 33c | 280.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed BESTIA | 72c | 277.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fluxo W7M | 25c | 261.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked BESTIA | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fluxo W7M | 49c | 235.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Fluxo W7M | 44c | 216.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked BESTIA | 58c | 206.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…df49backed Fluxo W7M | 35c | 206.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Fluxo W7M | 53c | 194.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…9b19backed Fluxo W7M | 44c | 194$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Fluxo W7M | 33c | 190.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…2d03backed Fluxo W7M | 35c | 186.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…cb5abacked BESTIA | 71c | 169$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked BESTIA | 73c | 165.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked BESTIA | 63c | 164$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fluxo W7M | 56c | 147.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Fluxo W7M | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked BESTIA | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Fluxo W7M | 57c | 131.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 330 | 57.3%189 W · 141 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Fluxo W7M | 35c | 131.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fluxo W7M | 57c | 128.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed BESTIA | 27c | 126.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo W7M | 47c | 121.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Fluxo W7M | 37c | 111.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 401 | 40.6%163 W · 238 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…d559backed Fluxo W7M | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…49e9backed Fluxo W7M | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked BESTIA | 76c | 99.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…81bebacked BESTIA | 40c | 97.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked BESTIA | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fluxo W7M | 46c | 95.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Fluxo W7M | 35c | 89.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed BESTIA | 78c | 82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Fluxo W7M | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed BESTIA | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked BESTIA | 53c | 76.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…0968backed Fluxo W7M | 57c | 75.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed BESTIA | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed BESTIA | 41c | 68.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BESTIA | 65c | 67.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…4cdfbacked BESTIA | 47c | 66.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fluxo W7M | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed BESTIA | 70c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 281 | 73%205 W · 76 L | +21.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed Fluxo W7M | 58c | 56.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6744backed BESTIA | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Fluxo W7M | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -15.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked BESTIA | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Fluxo W7M | 43c | 45.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed BESTIA | 43c | 42.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed BESTIA | 37c | 42.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fluxo W7M | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…95b3backed BESTIA | 62c | 41.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 138 | 71%98 W · 40 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed BESTIA | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…a989backed BESTIA | 31c | 36.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 143 | 22.4%32 W · 111 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked BESTIA | 62c | 36.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed BESTIA | 62c | 34.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fluxo W7M | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed BESTIA | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…f753backed BESTIA | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8256…3e45backed BESTIA | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed BESTIA | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Fluxo W7M | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,274 | 71.5%911 W · 363 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Fluxo W7M - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - RES Showdown South America PlayoffsBESTIA won
- Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Fluxo W7M - Map 1 WinnerBESTIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)BESTIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.