NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40914cfe2ea0cca4c85482eba6353122c4dce91ab4fe8f5d33a37f219996678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2b8…b908backed Under | 17c | 7,739$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 79c | 3,524$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.43 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 3,143$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.33 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 2,472$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.88 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 26c | 1,956$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.33 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 55c | 1,756$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 18c | 1,595$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.25 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 29c | 710.44$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.84 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 78c | 691.83$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.93 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 21c | 666$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 36c | 433.91$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 76c | 432.94$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 26c | 412.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 21c | 396.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 71c | 390.95$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 67c | 325.59$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Under | 35c | 277.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 54c | 259.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…162fbacked Under | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 38c | 230.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 5c | 223.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 74c | 222.04$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 14c | 219.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 71c | 216.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Under | 26c | 207.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed Under | 26c | 198.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 31c | 194.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 23c | 178.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 58c | 178$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 173.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Under | 24c | 147.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 76c | 141.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 24c | 139.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 75c | 120.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 74c | 117.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 47c | 103.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Over | 75c | 88.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 25c | 87.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 23c | 80.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 77c | 70.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Under | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 26c | 65.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 79c | 58.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 75c | 57.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 49c | 54.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 60c | 54.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 67c | 47.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 39.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 64c | 37.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 76c | 33.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 76c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 65c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. WildWild won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.