TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2b8…b908backed Under17c7,739$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over79c3,524$2,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.432,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over72c3,143$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.332,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over75c2,472$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.882,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under26c1,956$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3366552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Over55c1,756$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.994141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under18c1,595$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2516546.7%77 W · 88 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under29c710.44$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8431828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9762…73fbbacked Over78c691.83$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.933873.7%28 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under21c666$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8649546.5%230 W · 265 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under36c433.91$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.929533.6%99 W · 196 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over76c432.94$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9122250.5%112 W · 110 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3468…e71ebacked Under26c412.18$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.831020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Under21c396.85$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.347925.3%20 W · 59 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Over71c390.95$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.11,43158.3%834 W · 597 L+81.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Over67c325.59$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7118046.7%84 W · 96 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…86d2backed Under35c277.56$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.086547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over54c259.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4217247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8735…162fbacked Under39c247.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.341513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.9wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-75.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under38c230.76$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8450251.2%257 W · 245 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under5c223.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over74c222.04$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4923950.6%121 W · 118 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under14c219.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.671,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over71c216.93$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6641050.7%208 W · 202 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked Under26c207.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.741145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f83…3af9backed Under26c198.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x348f…a206backed Under31c194.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.397051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under23c178.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.88844.3%39 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over58c178$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7614045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over55c173.19$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9489355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Under24c147.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.193056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over76c141.12$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1339344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Under24c139.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.444755.3%26 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over75c120.17$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0410663.2%67 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over74c117.71$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6428340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over47c103.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2676950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Over75c88.24$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.063060%18 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under25c87.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.971,14051.5%587 W · 553 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d4…523cbacked Under23c80.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.433040%12 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9e…53c2backed Over77c70.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.182387%20 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick74cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b3e…b265backed Under36c66.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.042334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under26c65.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.141,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033c…b4afbacked Over79c58.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.292080%16 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Over75c57.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2210865.7%71 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over49c54.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7415051.3%77 W · 73 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over60c54.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.578964%57 W · 32 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1078038.5%300 W · 480 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x008d…b839backed Over69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.545069.3%312 W · 138 L+51.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over67c47.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9865721.9%144 W · 513 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Under48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.384134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.882353.1%437 W · 386 L+1.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c39.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.583,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Over64c37.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.477852.6%41 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over76c33.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.926753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc203…8beebacked Over77c32.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.341163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over76c27.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6712045.8%55 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over78c24.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.48060%48 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over65c21.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.583565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Over77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.457167.6%48 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.