TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No67c689.05$465 inWon+$22426069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5577…f320backed Yes33c571.52$191 inLost-$1911216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes30c333.33$100 inLost-$1003925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No69c325$224 inWon+$100.756361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No69c250.25$172 inWon+$77.8445657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77eb…66edbacked Yes31c211.42$66 inLost-$65.54933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes7c169$12 inLost-$11.8320638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Yes31c80.65$25 inLost-$2520247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc32…ea58backed Yes31c50$16 inLost-$15.52035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes34c43.99$15 inLost-$152347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.