NBA · resolved market
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c2f85a8e0bca01a4e0ae1224d25a99f9bd1a57c8031a034a5a39384617cbe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,242 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 948.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 67c | 828.37$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.86 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 71c | 704.98$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…cddabacked Yes | 32c | 700$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Yes | 30c | 446$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…d5a8backed Yes | 30c | 420.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…66edbacked Yes | 29c | 343.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes | 29c | 340.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…f320backed Yes | 30c | 337.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 69c | 324.98$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…17aabacked Yes | 33c | 306.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 33c | 258$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…4176backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed Yes | 29c | 158.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675d…c10cbacked Yes | 56c | 152.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 115.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed No | 73c | 70.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4792…d1c8backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 43c | 37.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc06a…5e53backed Yes | 30c | 36.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 19.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)Grizzlies won
- Trail Blazers vs. GrizzliesTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.