TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,869 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Grizzlies44c40,854$17,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,806.4654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Grizzlies44c17,353$7,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,576.9236359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Grizzlies45c16,194$7,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,287.2930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers57c9,802$5,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,254.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Trail Blazers55c9,091$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.9111457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers57c7,638$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.994,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Trail Blazers56c7,564$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.3137842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Trail Blazers56c6,903$3,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.1251354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Trail Blazers56c6,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6409343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf676…09c5backed Grizzlies45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers57c1,924$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.513,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Trail Blazers51c1,589$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.311,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers56c1,502$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.772,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Trail Blazers57c1,310$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.292,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Grizzlies42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.817050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3153…1dbcbacked Trail Blazers55c1,101$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.452065%13 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Grizzlies44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Trail Blazers57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Grizzlies7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2c…19f8backed Trail Blazers55c901$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.451662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Grizzlies45c898.58$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3651146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Grizzlies47c817.39$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.1740350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers53c774.95$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4949…478ebacked Trail Blazers54c740.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.743548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Trail Blazers58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.6690957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Trail Blazers56c635.68$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.792753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Trail Blazers57c630.17$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.971,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers51c629.92$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.632,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Grizzlies41c576$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1619645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Grizzlies45c551.04$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.340243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Trail Blazers53c547.17$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.177652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Trail Blazers56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7164944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Trail Blazers56c519.95$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.7822643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Trail Blazers57c505.41$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.4147651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Trail Blazers52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24013154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Trail Blazers55c462$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.922746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked Grizzlies48c419.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-62.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Trail Blazers57c409.75$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1934852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Trail Blazers56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Trail Blazers56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers56c380.2$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.393,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Grizzlies48c368.83$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0471449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Grizzlies40c360$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14445646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers56c352.14$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.992,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef4a…0314backed Grizzlies39c349.9$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.461533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Grizzlies44c313$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7211451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Trail Blazers59c303.92$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.243,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Trail Blazers55c299.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13591148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Grizzlies47c299.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14161747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Grizzlies40c292.68$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0776552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Trail Blazers55c287.18$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.232,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.861,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Grizzlies41c261.31$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10626044.6%116 W · 144 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Grizzlies42c259.13$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3420638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1850…1015backed Trail Blazers52c256.32$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Trail Blazers57c245.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6126048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies47c237.46$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.612,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2ea0backed Grizzlies49c236.76$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.011070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Grizzlies21c218.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.611,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ed…8c31backed Trail Blazers62c210.49$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Grizzlies45c210$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.51,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…3fb3backed Grizzlies49c204.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.39650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers46c192.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Trail Blazers53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.688647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Trail Blazers53c188.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.159245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac8…787dbacked Trail Blazers52c185.32$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Grizzlies40c180$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7256547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Grizzlies43c175.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3487453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Trail Blazers58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4111348.7%55 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Grizzlies48c166.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Grizzlies44c166.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2627747.7%132 W · 145 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Grizzlies44c162.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Trail Blazers48c153.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.591,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Grizzlies49c153.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515154.3%82 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers45c148.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.791,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Grizzlies43c143.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.835843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Trail Blazers48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers57c135.09$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.091,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Grizzlies42c129.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.622453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Grizzlies47c127$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1423350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11d…3706backed Trail Blazers61c120.44$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.971457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb96…34b9backed Trail Blazers61c117.72$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.911241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef93…9f0dbacked Trail Blazers61c111.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.581650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Trail Blazers55c105.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5920762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Trail Blazers57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2633246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Trail Blazers56c103.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.041,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Trail Blazers57c102.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8317243%74 W · 98 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Trail Blazers56c101.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.798653.5%46 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Trail Blazers62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389255.4%51 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Grizzlies46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Trail Blazers56c99.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.752,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies45c94.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.614,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Trail Blazers51c94.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1645445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Grizzlies40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3634047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Grizzlies40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3657250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Trail Blazers57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7233360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Trail Blazers57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7224358%141 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed Grizzlies58c85.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012151.2%62 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Grizzlies32c85.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.658937.1%33 W · 56 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Trail Blazers57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.