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NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Trail Blazers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $737 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d4c…41c4backed Trail Blazers55c461.23$254 inLost-$253.682070%14 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2e…0433backed Grizzlies45c120.32$54 inWon+$66.181172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeb1…8ec8backed Grizzlies45c115.38$52 inWon+$63.461650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e1…d4d9backed Grizzlies45c113.97$51 inWon+$62.681291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+68.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x37d6…4c63backed Grizzlies45c110.86$50 inWon+$60.971118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick48cpaid-61.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies44c23.71$10 inWon+$13.285,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed Trail Blazers56c23.71$13 inLost-$13.2811553%61 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.