TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Monteof Team Falcons, Monte
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$867,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$921,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $867,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86af…f384backed Team Falcons0c288,928$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.279764.9%63 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Monte25c108,154$27,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,990.6425255.6%140 W · 112 L+18.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Falcons75c100,261$75,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,195.7450054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Monte30c34,740$10,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,157.6541040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons57c27,096$15,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,390.471,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Falcons76c23,337$17,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,702.8121655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons74c20,000$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,799.9675758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Monte25c9,500$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,124.951861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons29c8,031$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30037346.4%173 W · 200 L-16.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Monte52c5,830$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.212259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Monte34c5,824$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,864.027,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Team Falcons40c5,736$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.3612956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Monte19c5,656$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.8330726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Monte37c5,557$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,527.0837157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons58c5,365$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.941,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed Monte76c5,176$3,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.1610359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Monte24c5,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8009855.1%54 W · 44 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Monte26c4,351$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,219.5778639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Team Falcons75c4,267$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20018963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked Team Falcons76c3,947$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00027751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons50c3,936$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.021,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Monte26c3,779$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.961,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons54c3,611$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.382,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed Team Falcons56c3,264$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.585444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Team Falcons41c3,215$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.1212759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Monte51c3,137$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.841,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb43…4201backed Monte25c3,136$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.61844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Monte45c2,921$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.133359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Team Falcons64c2,869$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.4615155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons37c2,859$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.21,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons41c2,793$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.7387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a7…9631backed Monte38c2,700$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.32837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Team Falcons42c2,674$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.347439.2%29 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons54c2,411$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.2688746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Monte27c2,370$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.2911249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddfb…d9bfbacked Monte72c2,142$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons53c2,074$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.695,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Team Falcons76c2,050$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.941,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Falcons75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014257%81 W · 61 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Monte42c1,845$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.532,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe70…ffc1backed Team Falcons62c1,802$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.431428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Monte26c1,750$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2951,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Monte26c1,730$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.9417538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b0…69b3backed Team Falcons59c1,682$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons47c1,619$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.381,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons65c1,600$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Team Falcons39c1,582$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8919659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Monte25c1,568$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.9935054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Monte32c1,564$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.3313655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Team Falcons55c1,482$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.7675145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Team Falcons75c1,400$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05013360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Falcons74c1,351$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Monte40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75020958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1305…46d2backed Team Falcons61c1,250$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.492277.3%17 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons61c1,234$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.896,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Monte20c1,221$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.7960434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons60c1,174$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team Falcons61c1,155$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.0978043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Falcons60c1,109$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.456854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Monte34c1,100$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.691,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Monte28c1,089$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.2918444%81 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4759…dc6ebacked Team Falcons75c1,080$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.24870.8%34 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Team Falcons73c1,058$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.6141069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bc…a12abacked Team Falcons79c1,040$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.41070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed Monte37c1,022$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.27716.9%13 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Team Falcons27c1,022$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27611949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Falcons70c1,018$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.891,36066.3%901 W · 459 L+75.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Team Falcons74c1,010$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.3935460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Monte37c1,007$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.961,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Falcons68c1,007$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6444657.2%255 W · 191 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed Team Falcons67c999.99$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.995446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Team Falcons67c999.99$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.9950846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Monte40c978.77$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.1740253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Monte24c966.84$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.7916633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Monte28c946.32$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.8842057.6%242 W · 178 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Team Falcons54c936.29$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.610150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Team Falcons75c933.33$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70014363.6%91 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5113…b692backed Team Falcons75c918.83$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.123652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc47…7af8backed Team Falcons76c917.35$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Monte44c909.09$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.098261%50 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Monte36c898.61$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.735,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Falcons10c886.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.541,64332.8%539 W · 1,104 L-48.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Monte25c878.24$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.6835249.7%175 W · 177 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9700…798fbacked Team Falcons57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012852.3%67 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Team Falcons75c800$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60027056.3%152 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed Team Falcons75c800$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011265.2%73 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Falcons73c799.97$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.9828943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons62c773.54$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.338758.6%51 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Falcons46c750.39$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9862738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons48c750.39$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.254,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Team Falcons39c750.18$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.9322129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Team Falcons26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19518846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Monte16c728.39$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.8441716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons47c728.06$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.714,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Team Falcons70c710.92$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Monte57c696.49$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.499443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Monte76c672$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2818338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4891…2a07backed Monte45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.672339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Monte23c666$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.8225651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked Team Falcons67c662.16$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.654660.9%28 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.