NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc78cc21320030ba1a6a48ea3ac33c6d4d780bd31f12a88e6462251cf20cff9fc

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof Cavaliers, 76ers
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $199,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,632 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked 76ers	52c	82,999$43,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39,856.8	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Cavaliers	48c	41,931$20,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,126.88	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Cavaliers	48c	19,233$9,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,231.69	431	48.7%210 W · 221 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed 76ers	52c	19,231$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,230.77	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed 76ers	54c	16,199$8,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,449.22	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers	52c	14,080$7,330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,749.93	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers	47c	12,790$5,953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,953.14	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c21…9b8abacked Cavaliers	48c	10,417$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Cavaliers	49c	8,713$4,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,269.3	382	51%195 W · 187 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Cavaliers	48c	5,417$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Cavaliers	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers	48c	4,979$2,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,390.06	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Cavaliers	48c	4,837$2,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,322	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Cavaliers	48c	4,513$2,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,166	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers	48c	4,319$2,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,085.24	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers	48c	4,100$1,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked 76ers	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,920	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Cavaliers	47c	3,830$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers	52c	2,646$1,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,270.71	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Cavaliers	48c	2,083$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Cavaliers	48c	1,997$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.56	250	49.2%123 W · 127 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Cavaliers	48c	1,667$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	348	54%188 W · 160 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked 76ers	52c	1,640$853 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$787.2	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Cavaliers	48c	1,398$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671	324	50.6%164 W · 160 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cavaliers	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	591	40.8%241 W · 350 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Cavaliers	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	629	48.6%306 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Cavaliers	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	211	39.8%84 W · 127 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed 76ers	53c	943.4$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.4	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Cavaliers	48c	901.24$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.6	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Cavaliers	23c	851$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.69	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f0…923bbacked Cavaliers	10c	800$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers	32c	770.19$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.35	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Cavaliers	49c	714.29$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Cavaliers	48c	694.35$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.29	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed 76ers	48c	578.97$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.33	134	35.8%48 W · 86 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef0…f14cbacked Cavaliers	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+138.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35d9…d520backed Cavaliers	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.16per pick	26cpaid	+70.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Cavaliers	48c	463$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.24	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Cavaliers	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	302	24.8%75 W · 227 L	+15.5wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20a3…0fcabacked Cavaliers	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked 76ers	52c	399.99$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	206	50%103 W · 103 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 76ers	51c	305.91$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.53	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Cavaliers	48c	305$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.4	114	51.8%59 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Cavaliers	48c	214.58$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	184	48.9%90 W · 94 L	-13.3wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed 76ers	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	619	57.5%356 W · 263 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers	19c	191.01$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.51	1,170	50.3%588 W · 582 L	+46.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67b…c941backed Cavaliers	62c	161.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Cavaliers	48c	123.07$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.07	301	51.8%156 W · 145 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Cavaliers	48c	122.44$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.77	256	55.5%142 W · 114 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…e4bebacked Cavaliers	48c	116.67$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x387e…ca5dbacked 76ers	74c	112.71$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.88	53	62.3%33 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers	46c	112.08$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.56	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed 76ers	52c	101.41$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.68	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked 76ers	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	280	56.8%159 W · 121 L	+22.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked 76ers	47c	94.8$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.37	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa308…94b9backed 76ers	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Cavaliers	48c	87.71$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.1	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers	47c	78.29$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e6…3cd2backed Cavaliers	49c	75.57$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers	47c	75.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.47	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb756…5846backed 76ers	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	50	66%33 W · 17 L	+6.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Cavaliers	48c	63.75$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Cavaliers	48c	52.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers	71c	51.47$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.31	766	53.5%410 W · 356 L	+65.5wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x263c…3ef9backed 76ers	37c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9952…ceb2backed Cavaliers	48c	41.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Cavaliers	57c	40.65$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked 76ers	57c	35.96$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Cavaliers	48c	31.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Cavaliers	39c	30.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	100	28%28 W · 72 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d9…bef3backed 76ers	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Cavaliers	48c	28.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Cavaliers	48c	26.93$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	877	44.7%392 W · 485 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30f4…ff48backed Cavaliers	76c	26.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	75cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd65a…632cbacked Cavaliers	77c	25.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	8	75%6 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	75cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed 76ers	52c	24.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.95	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e3…a8cabacked Cavaliers	48c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed 76ers	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 50 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
76ers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 205.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
Adem Bona: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 9.5No won
Dominick Barlow: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 18.5No won
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Jabari Walker: Points O/U 9.5No won
James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 17.5No won
Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 17.5No won
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-20.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-21.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-22.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-23.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-24.5)76ers won
VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 4.5No won
VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 18.5No won
VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event