TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$481,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,334 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Cavaliers51c130,421$66,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,806.1648343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked 76ers49c99,978$48,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,789.0412639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked 76ers49c92,781$45,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,262.824257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Cavaliers53c80,125$42,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,658.931,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked 76ers47c78,642$37,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,095.641,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed 76ers49c73,300$35,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,917.1632653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Cavaliers51c67,658$34,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,152.466248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Cavaliers52c24,009$12,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,524.5248352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers52c22,097$11,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,654.154,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked 76ers49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Cavaliers51c15,393$7,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,522.9134854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers49c13,366$6,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,534.014,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Cavaliers51c11,622$5,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,686.2948546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef3…4671backed Cavaliers51c11,543$5,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,655.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3c…59d8backed Cavaliers51c10,100$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,949450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed 76ers49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked 76ers49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f6c…b40cbacked Cavaliers51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4101675%12 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+96.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x38ed…4ed7backed 76ers50c8,900$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4501723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Cavaliers51c8,732$4,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.6831643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Cavaliers51c7,783$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,784.981,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Cavaliers51c7,059$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,458.8238946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed 76ers47c7,000$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,29058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed 76ers48c5,994$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.142,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Cavaliers51c4,611$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.2438750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Cavaliers51c4,042$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.5825049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked 76ers47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked 76ers48c3,954$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.981,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Cavaliers52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.1556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers49c3,572$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Cavaliers50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Cavaliers53c3,080$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.7182442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde9…f6e1backed Cavaliers51c2,886$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked 76ers48c2,610$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed 76ers49c2,551$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Cavaliers57c2,500$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.1814448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers49c2,244$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.264,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers52c2,226$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.981,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace8…4624backed 76ers50c2,078$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0392133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed 76ers49c1,961$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.789343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers51c1,628$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.712,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers48c1,518$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.233,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Cavaliers53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70511044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Cavaliers53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.187759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed 76ers38c1,430$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.718438.6%71 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked 76ers49c1,146$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.3164944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Cavaliers53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Cavaliers52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.542425%6 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-42.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers48c844.24$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.269,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Cavaliers51c824.35$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.935152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed 76ers50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35016162.7%101 W · 60 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers47c660$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.26,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Cavaliers51c652.1$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.0243544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Cavaliers51c583.53$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.4776250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Cavaliers53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0420963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09e…9368backed Cavaliers51c519.61$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.618353%44 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Cavaliers52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7739051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1515…f3e5backed 76ers50c407.5$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2d…c6dfbacked Cavaliers51c401.69$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e9…6d8ebacked 76ers49c389$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6115446.1%71 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc22…5738backed Cavaliers52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Cavaliers52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6219045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked 76ers48c380.41$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5314046.4%65 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Cavaliers53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3625155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed 76ers49c363.04$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8918147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Cavaliers51c335$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.256538.5%25 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Cavaliers51c315.38$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3846346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Cavaliers53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0211157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e36…6ce1backed Cavaliers51c274.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.513060%18 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed 76ers48c269.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5921743.8%95 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Cavaliers51c221$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0853945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Cavaliers53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9436643.2%158 W · 208 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed 76ers49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9822746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed 76ers58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11612743.3%55 W · 72 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69d…fe68backed 76ers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007316.4%12 W · 61 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+1,317.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Cavaliers51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9810645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Cavaliers51c198.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9622148%106 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked 76ers45c198$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.135849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Cavaliers51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0811736.8%43 W · 74 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x434e…a62ebacked Cavaliers52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3121748.4%105 W · 112 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Cavaliers52c183.97$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.314161%25 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e5…bad7backed 76ers49c174.23$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed 76ers46c172.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6313435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Cavaliers51c165.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2762844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed 76ers49c130.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7876552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979d…87dcbacked Cavaliers51c118.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.993141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers50c110.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.793,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Cavaliers52c107.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7857650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Cavaliers56c107.34$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3413852.2%72 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd72f…2806backed Cavaliers51c107.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.472842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef1…c0debacked Cavaliers50c107$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.56852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb706…c2adbacked Cavaliers51c104$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8820641.7%86 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Cavaliers52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4895848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked 76ers55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5513154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed 76ers56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567536%27 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed 76ers49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4991148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5302…0a6fbacked Cavaliers51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4911957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Cavaliers53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0859650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 50 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.