NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4538d117f3a0821edfa24184478e2ac6005987cfc83d8cd833745e79872c0ed0

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cavaliersof Cavaliers, 76ers
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,731 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6d11…c449backed 76ers	44c	10,800$4,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,752.16	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Cavaliers	56c	9,065$5,076 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,988.6	77	59.7%46 W · 31 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers	45c	5,243$2,341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,341.02	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked 76ers	47c	5,200$2,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,444	83	61.4%51 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers	54c	4,860$2,646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,214.24	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Cavaliers	56c	3,550$1,988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,561.89	292	43.8%128 W · 164 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers	54c	2,737$1,478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,258.98	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed 76ers	44c	2,222$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.68	93	43%40 W · 53 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers	56c	2,164$1,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$952.08	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	45c	2,153$973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.95	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed 76ers	45c	2,122$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.77	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers	56c	1,500$840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Cavaliers	50c	1,245$617 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.11	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+6.1wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Cavaliers	55c	1,125$619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.43	241	51%123 W · 118 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers	54c	1,102$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.14	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Cavaliers	55c	991.08$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.98	348	54%188 W · 160 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked 76ers	51c	880.69$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.97	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers	56c	624$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.56	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed 76ers	45c	576.83$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.61	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Cavaliers	54c	569.51$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.27	179	60.9%109 W · 70 L	+17.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Cavaliers	56c	535.71$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.71	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Cavaliers	56c	466.3$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.92	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed 76ers	23c	466$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.59	184	38.6%71 W · 113 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed 76ers	46c	454.76$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.61	378	42.9%162 W · 216 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed 76ers	48c	304.74$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.28	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers	55c	300.92$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.03	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers	50c	300.88$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.27	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed 76ers	53c	286.69$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.95	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Cavaliers	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	114	51.8%59 W · 55 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed 76ers	47c	200$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.4	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Cavaliers	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	378	52.9%200 W · 178 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Cavaliers	55c	180.74$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.74	145	57.2%83 W · 62 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe350…61f0backed 76ers	46c	173$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.58	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Cavaliers	57c	154.39$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.39	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919c…06d8backed Cavaliers	57c	153.49$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.09	198	52%103 W · 95 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed 76ers	47c	153$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.91	360	45%162 W · 198 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Cavaliers	54c	149.53$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.78	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Cavaliers	55c	139.68$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.32	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked 76ers	49c	138.77$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed 76ers	49c	124.39$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.95	242	47.1%114 W · 128 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked 76ers	50c	119.94$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	335	54.6%183 W · 152 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x322f…65a5backed Cavaliers	52c	115.38$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.38	119	43.7%52 W · 67 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Cavaliers	49c	91.84$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.84	258	47.3%122 W · 136 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked 76ers	46c	86.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	596	50.3%300 W · 296 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers	54c	84.31$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.11	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1adb…f12abacked Cavaliers	55c	76$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.2	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked 76ers	45c	76$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Cavaliers	53c	67.92$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.92	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed 76ers	43c	55.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	292	45.5%133 W · 159 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Cavaliers	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed 76ers	47c	53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Cavaliers	47c	49.69$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.34	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+3.0wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed 76ers	33c	42.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Cavaliers	57c	42.11$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.11	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers	49c	40.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b93…26bbbacked Cavaliers	55c	38.51$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.38	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1c…1f45backed 76ers	46c	37.06$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Cavaliers	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed 76ers	47c	33.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Cavaliers	76c	31.1$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 76ers	47c	30.79$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Cavaliers	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	293	48.5%142 W · 151 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Cavaliers	57c	24.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.39	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Cavaliers	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	233	50.6%118 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Cavaliers	55c	21.38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Cavaliers	56c	20.6$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.06	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Cavaliers	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 50 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
76ers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 205.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
Adem Bona: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 9.5No won
Dominick Barlow: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 18.5No won
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Jabari Walker: Points O/U 9.5No won
James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 17.5No won
Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 17.5No won
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-20.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-21.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-22.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-23.5)76ers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-24.5)76ers won
VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 4.5No won
VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 18.5No won
VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event