TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

National Bank Open: Alycia Parks vs Alexandra Eala

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alexandra Ealaof Alycia Parks, Alexandra Eala
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$488,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$561,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $488,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21af…f272backed Alycia Parks10c39,567$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.428353%44 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Alycia Parks18c28,302$5,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,104.7517746.3%82 W · 95 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Alycia Parks3c23,745$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.621,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Alycia Parks18c20,510$3,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,691.7425453.1%135 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Alycia Parks10c16,400$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.813,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Alycia Parks4c14,648$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.6514043.6%61 W · 79 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab4a…823abacked Alycia Parks10c10,123$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.165143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Alycia Parks26c9,314$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.336545.2%165 W · 200 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Alycia Parks18c7,543$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.5633235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Alycia Parks11c5,500$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59037738.2%144 W · 233 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Alycia Parks8c5,352$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44930235.4%107 W · 195 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Alycia Parks18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Alycia Parks16c3,809$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.384,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x370c…6929backed Alycia Parks10c3,356$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34114947%70 W · 79 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Alycia Parks13c3,163$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42158021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Alycia Parks16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Alycia Parks18c2,222$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9625244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Alexandra Eala80c1,689$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8756651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Alycia Parks9c1,489$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13312125.6%31 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Alycia Parks16c1,475$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0721743.8%95 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Alycia Parks18c1,219$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.421,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Alycia Parks13c1,167$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0691051%464 W · 446 L+23.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Alycia Parks17c1,111$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.323836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alycia Parks3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Alycia Parks19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19098240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Alycia Parks11c920.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008810.2%9 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Alycia Parks19c868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9211345.1%51 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked Alycia Parks20c729.16$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8360342%253 W · 350 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb94c…ae33backed Alycia Parks20c696$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.27247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Alycia Parks31c693.55$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21518044.4%80 W · 100 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…cf7cbacked Alycia Parks10c640$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637157.7%41 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Alexandra Eala77c609.47$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1670254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alycia Parks15c604.74$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Alycia Parks18c600.1$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.362,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x831f…cc50backed Alycia Parks12c590.45$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5421841.3%90 W · 128 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda03…fa78backed Alexandra Eala73c586.13$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.844946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Alycia Parks19c568$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9212545.6%57 W · 68 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Alexandra Eala80c560.4$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.241,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x332e…df71backed Alycia Parks18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042934.7%149 W · 280 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Alycia Parks18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009050%45 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83bd…3f07backed Alycia Parks19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Alycia Parks18c524.61$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4310859.3%64 W · 44 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Alycia Parks20c504.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.988942.7%38 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Alycia Parks20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025158.6%147 W · 104 L+17.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dbe…7833backed Alycia Parks14c465.05$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9715115.9%24 W · 127 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Alycia Parks9c449.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4248941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Alexandra Eala78c446.25$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5438066.3%252 W · 128 L-0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb550…2799backed Alycia Parks17c433.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Alycia Parks20c428$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Alycia Parks9c420.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.732,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Alycia Parks9c419.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Alycia Parks10c416.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.671,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Alycia Parks21c400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8231749.5%157 W · 160 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Alycia Parks17c399.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9935938.2%137 W · 222 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e6…794ebacked Alycia Parks19c394.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alycia Parks15c381.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Alexandra Eala74c376$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6427554.9%151 W · 124 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Alycia Parks14c371.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0863537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…b00ebacked Alycia Parks14c331.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Alycia Parks10c321.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.851,04236.5%380 W · 662 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Alycia Parks9c314.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.532,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Alycia Parks19c303.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6824228.5%69 W · 173 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Alycia Parks23c301.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5932329.7%96 W · 227 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Alycia Parks24c293.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.941,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453d…2dbabacked Alycia Parks7c272.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Alycia Parks17c250.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5878840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Alycia Parks10c249.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526955%148 W · 121 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Alycia Parks19c239.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Alycia Parks33c223.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.673,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8806…d9f1backed Alycia Parks16c209.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5116726.3%44 W · 123 L-18.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x166f…632abacked Alycia Parks11c207.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211437.7%43 W · 71 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed Alycia Parks20c203.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0819841.9%83 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e9…443bbacked Alycia Parks18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07b…6ee4backed Alycia Parks10c199.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Alycia Parks23c195.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Alycia Parks23c195.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Alycia Parks10c184.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.119339.4%76 W · 117 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bcb…06dbbacked Alycia Parks14c183.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12dc…75a8backed Alycia Parks7c183.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122313%3 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Alycia Parks19c180$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.881,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Alycia Parks17c174$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5872638.8%282 W · 444 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd304…3ed2backed Alycia Parks18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Alycia Parks18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2738741.1%159 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Alycia Parks16c149.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7404…c8efbacked Alycia Parks9c148.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Alycia Parks7c145.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.375,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc4b…ae05backed Alycia Parks15c136.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Alycia Parks22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f190backed Alexandra Eala75c134.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x163d…7c69backed Alycia Parks20c133.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7614715.6%23 W · 124 L-32.8wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-52.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x3b96…6226backed Alycia Parks19c132$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.081442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec3…38b0backed Alycia Parks15c127.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fa…d60abacked Alycia Parks15c125.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Alexandra Eala80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Alycia Parks18c121.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9447251.3%242 W · 230 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ef…eb67backed Alycia Parks18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e37…5bdbbacked Alycia Parks18c105.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0519852.5%104 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f5…f087backed Alycia Parks20c105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2117757.6%102 W · 75 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Alexandra Eala69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3141644.5%185 W · 231 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf86…3e17backed Alycia Parks18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.