NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0fa3bee2aecdda7bc08970f77a4d33b269f52cbaa2e4ef0dab569873e04ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 47c | 5,277$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 3,234$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.96 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,111$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 1,981$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.05 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 55c | 1,508$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 1,281$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.44 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,047$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 51c | 1,040$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 854.55$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.55 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 55c | 854.55$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.55 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 486.79$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…fd0dbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 51c | 241.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 231.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 199.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 178.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df3…ff6cbacked Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 48c | 79.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Under | 48c | 67.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 57.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Over | 54c | 54.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…5ce8backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 52c | 52.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Over | 52c | 48.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…edacbacked Over | 54c | 42.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…f54cbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 37.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Under | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 32.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 50c | 23.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 52c | 22.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 54c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 51c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. JazzWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.