NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe195fc24ad13e53fa5cac0b0a7ea22dcbea6d018664dc518f7ab9f016e571bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 51c | 9,613$4,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,710.32 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Warriors | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Jazz | 48c | 8,428$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.57 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5c…36f0backed Jazz | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Jazz | 49c | 4,898$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jazz | 49c | 4,866$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.34 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Jazz | 49c | 3,549$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 52c | 3,486$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 48c | 3,033$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.82 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Warriors | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…64c5backed Jazz | 49c | 2,932$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.9 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 51c | 2,692$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.06 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Warriors | 52c | 2,308$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.69 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 52c | 2,012$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.63 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Warriors | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors | 52c | 1,548$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.87 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jazz | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Warriors | 54c | 1,400$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Jazz | 48c | 1,377$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.84 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 46c | 1,331$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jazz | 48c | 871$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.08 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Jazz | 21c | 790$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.38 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Warriors | 55c | 699.83$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.92 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Jazz | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Warriors | 53c | 479.76$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.72 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ae…31bcbacked Warriors | 53c | 473.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Jazz | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Warriors | 50c | 402$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors | 52c | 400.07$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 47c | 305.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Warriors | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 45c | 276.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Warriors | 52c | 237.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed Jazz | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Jazz | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…d03dbacked Warriors | 52c | 182.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Warriors | 51c | 124$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 52c | 116.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Jazz | 46c | 113.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a2…0a6abacked Jazz | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Jazz | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Warriors | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Warriors | 52c | 98.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Warriors | 52c | 89.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz | 44c | 89.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors | 52c | 78.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Warriors | 52c | 66.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Warriors | 55c | 65.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Warriors | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Warriors | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Jazz | 48c | 54.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Jazz | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Jazz | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Warriors | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Jazz | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Warriors | 51c | 49.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Warriors | 63c | 49.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…edacbacked Warriors | 52c | 48.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Warriors | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Jazz | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Warriors | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…1db1backed Warriors | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Jazz | 45c | 42.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 51c | 41.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Jazz | 48c | 40.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Jazz | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Jazz | 44c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Jazz | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jazz | 47c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Jazz | 46c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Warriors | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Warriors | 53c | 27.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. JazzWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.