TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof Aurora Gaming, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,397 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Aurora Gaming66c23,870$15,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,832.2945357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Astralis42c11,823$4,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,900.784,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Astralis35c8,611$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,596.924858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Astralis32c7,566$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,120.282143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Astralis36c5,608$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,607.411,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Astralis34c4,997$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,297.824862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Astralis34c4,412$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.7619448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked Astralis35c1,714$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.299050%45 W · 45 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Astralis13c1,500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.993246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Aurora Gaming24c1,375$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32610951.4%56 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora Gaming49c1,315$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.121,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Astralis32c1,214$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.3945848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Aurora Gaming77c1,200$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92446545.6%212 W · 253 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…e5f7backed Aurora Gaming39c1,027$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Aurora Gaming68c932.67$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.1313461.9%83 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…252bbacked Aurora Gaming23c878.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Astralis46c719.71$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.3332352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Astralis6c716.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.5741716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora Gaming68c705.88$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48015249.3%75 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora Gaming54c630$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3435040%20 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis34c628.49$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.898352.4%515 W · 468 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Aurora Gaming66c600$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39658651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f8…54bdbacked Astralis27c516.34$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.3425350.2%127 W · 126 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Aurora Gaming39c486.56$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1884949%24 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Aurora Gaming56c463.16$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2608038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked Aurora Gaming74c450$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33314239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora Gaming67c447.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026461%161 W · 103 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c8…0267backed Astralis34c438.24$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.2411342.5%48 W · 65 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c4…cfedbacked Aurora Gaming59c424$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507042.9%30 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Astralis13c399.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.991,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc9…7db1backed Astralis58c398.66$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0d…0018backed Aurora Gaming66c302.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.97540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Aurora Gaming60c301.67$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18121247.6%101 W · 111 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Astralis34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1297240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b9…4589backed Aurora Gaming68c284.79$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.14366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Aurora Gaming74c267.48$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4252834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Astralis47c264.47$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.173450%17 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Astralis4c228$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.8260838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…e109backed Aurora Gaming36c200.92$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.332133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08cc…1a44backed Aurora Gaming67c199.43$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.62944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Aurora Gaming68c184.37$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12534146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae8…0e50backed Astralis17c181.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.747741.6%32 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked Aurora Gaming67c171.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6510855.6%60 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Astralis49c166$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.21,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Astralis36c146$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9426438.6%102 W · 162 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4d…d116backed Aurora Gaming60c140$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844637%17 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc203…ffb8backed Aurora Gaming66c121$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8611646.6%54 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Astralis14c118$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.021,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe7…90dcbacked Aurora Gaming67c114.37$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.637262.5%45 W · 27 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e0…14e9backed Astralis11c110$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.92441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf376…953abacked Astralis19c108.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.285236.5%19 W · 33 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed Astralis12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa019…c220backed Aurora Gaming15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521437.9%81 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Aurora Gaming50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506546.2%30 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed Aurora Gaming67c75.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.455738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2473…4cd4backed Aurora Gaming21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Aurora Gaming57c61.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3522254.5%121 W · 101 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9e…79e4backed Aurora Gaming67c61.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.944360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cf5…c116backed Aurora Gaming67c59.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c8…a8a3backed Astralis66c58.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+51.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bbd…cac0backed Aurora Gaming34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Astralis56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.11,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697e…c4dfbacked Aurora Gaming67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.726862.3%167 W · 101 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Aurora Gaming50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254837.5%18 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7769…75bfbacked Aurora Gaming50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255054%27 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Aurora Gaming67c48.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.42per pick54cpaid-82.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Astralis51c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0569863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Astralis34c44.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.127136.6%26 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming67c42.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2224554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Aurora Gaming68c41.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc30a…0532backed Astralis31c41.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Astralis34c40.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8913556.3%76 W · 59 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora Gaming67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.882646.2%382 W · 444 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8431…d96dbacked Aurora Gaming54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x850a…9724backed Aurora Gaming41c38.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.561145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Astralis34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.822643.8%99 W · 127 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora Gaming65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.570423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6f…778fbacked Aurora Gaming67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205855.2%32 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a8…22f0backed Astralis49c21.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+62.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5a…56c0backed Aurora Gaming54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Aurora Gaming79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-40.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe245…3bc8backed Aurora Gaming64c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2421756.7%123 W · 94 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.