TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over51c56,666$28,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,777.351,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Under65c39,551$25,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,867.2913856.5%78 W · 60 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over41c27,688$11,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,456.9811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a4…e371backed Under49c23,897$11,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,709.381850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over41c12,426$5,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,352.028,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792e…fd6cbacked Over49c10,551$5,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,426.332748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over51c9,805$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,804.6539047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under49c9,550$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,725.2616347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under49c8,941$4,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,381.093,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed Under49c7,500$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6758950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under49c5,978$2,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,952.836,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0467…fb2ebacked Under49c4,498$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.146747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under49c2,600$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27455653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under57c2,515$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.7791252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c2,129$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.075,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Over53c2,047$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.1320648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Under48c2,006$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.121,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over34c1,683$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.3110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over50c1,510$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9568053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under49c1,504$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.528,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over50c1,429$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.452,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Under49c1,173$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.4651545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under52c1,125$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.6841346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under49c1,024$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.762,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under49c981.56$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3529752.5%156 W · 141 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under49c957.74$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.5697050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over52c909.12$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.359,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under49c608.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.781,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under50c587$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.954,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under58c538.02$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.051,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under47c499.97$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.995,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over53c498$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.061,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c465$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.856,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Over46c449.33$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.6419546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over55c410.8$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1829549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Under45c401$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1179442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…de2ebacked Under50c396.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under49c390$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.11,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under51c320$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1345045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed Over50c300.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.722149.3%109 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Over51c300$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1489650%48 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under57c296.58$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16929950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under48c276.33$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.821,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under58c270.44$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.031,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over41c193.23$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.591,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3134756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under50c185.81$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.914,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under51c180$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.81,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Over35c178.91$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3519542.6%83 W · 112 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under55c165.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.321,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Under51c160.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.885949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under46c154.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.043,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under49c144$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5656851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over42c140.39$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.925,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under49c137$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.132,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over34c129.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.75,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6010249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over17c114.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1270737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…3961backed Under46c99.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over44c97.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.911,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under57c89.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5147549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over51c87.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8519654.1%106 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c81.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.192,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over50c78.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.22,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over50c74.94$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4731258%181 W · 131 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ec1…b7b3backed Under58c71.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Under48c68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6468846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under51c64.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad9…fc71backed Over52c62.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over58c61.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.92,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.841236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under50c59.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9317047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Under49c58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4235149.3%173 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Under50c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2826444.3%117 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56643.9%29 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8766…4171backed Under50c48.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3614351.7%74 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over57c48.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.988053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0098…71e0backed Under49c47.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0615252%79 W · 73 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under58c45.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.363,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Under56c43.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3310864.8%70 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Under50c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.527252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.673849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1f…a7d2backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Over48c38.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1634255.3%189 W · 153 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under58c38.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecde…04efbacked Over51c37.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.256448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Under44c36.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2324843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed2d…faeebacked Under51c33.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.972250%11 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under50c32.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.341,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over37c32.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5458649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Over47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9639250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over51c30.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.081,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4738…e64abacked Under45c30.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0570…16c9backed Over50c28.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4610642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd2…24efbacked Under53c28.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Over37c28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6434443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.