TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Evil Geniusesof KRÜ Esports, Evil Geniuses
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,576 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked Evil Geniuses30c18,245$5,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,740.9926650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed KRÜ Esports69c17,500$12,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,122.3152455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed KRÜ Esports65c5,025$3,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.5426050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Evil Geniuses42c5,000$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900.888444%37 W · 47 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed KRÜ Esports57c3,311$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.193248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked KRÜ Esports1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed KRÜ Esports1c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30790%0 W · 79 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Evil Geniuses23c2,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Evil Geniuses47c1,738$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.181,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed KRÜ Esports59c1,698$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.928151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Evil Geniuses37c1,694$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.2236138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed KRÜ Esports54c1,600$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.730147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked Evil Geniuses46c1,537$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.662040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked KRÜ Esports1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20701.4%1 W · 69 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed KRÜ Esports52c1,267$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked KRÜ Esports57c1,220$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.6553455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b48…df6fbacked KRÜ Esports51c1,200$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Evil Geniuses55c1,148$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Evil Geniuses42c1,118$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.6968458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Evil Geniuses39c1,064$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.411,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Evil Geniuses48c1,027$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.1465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Evil Geniuses35c879.63$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.741,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed KRÜ Esports1c850$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Evil Geniuses20c834$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.233153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Evil Geniuses42c832.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.921,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Evil Geniuses57c816$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0799945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked Evil Geniuses58c753.56$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.732152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c66…c204backed KRÜ Esports62c700$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed KRÜ Esports52c619.99$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.361136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Evil Geniuses53c600.97$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9456557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed KRÜ Esports52c583.98$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked KRÜ Esports52c550$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed KRÜ Esports66c451.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009041.1%37 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed KRÜ Esports72c409.65$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1262156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed KRÜ Esports45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed KRÜ Esports51c390.35$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Evil Geniuses24c388$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.410455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Evil Geniuses23c387.5$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.528847.6%137 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked KRÜ Esports75c356.23$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.731153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Evil Geniuses69c350$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.52157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Evil Geniuses49c339.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9925555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked KRÜ Esports46c326.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Evil Geniuses67c323.31$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.691353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked KRÜ Esports28c318.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.634020%8 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…c7a1backed KRÜ Esports53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Evil Geniuses53c299.82$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.75326.4%14 W · 39 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e51…71d4backed KRÜ Esports47c270.54$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1279654.2%52 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Evil Geniuses69c269.03$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.412962.8%81 W · 48 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab27…0c65backed KRÜ Esports67c268.18$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked KRÜ Esports47c255.52$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9551344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Evil Geniuses33c252.05$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16868949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked KRÜ Esports60c252.03$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8321144.1%93 W · 118 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked KRÜ Esports49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.536648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed KRÜ Esports43c240.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4209…0706backed Evil Geniuses58c236.5$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Evil Geniuses11c223.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5960423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Evil Geniuses28c206.43$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.639640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Evil Geniuses26c205.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.115459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96cc…08f7backed KRÜ Esports80c200.87$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick64cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed KRÜ Esports59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1182733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked KRÜ Esports44c200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed KRÜ Esports51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Evil Geniuses26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.3124457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked KRÜ Esports53c187.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009148.4%44 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Evil Geniuses55c186.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1511243.8%49 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Evil Geniuses44c180.48$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0745250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed KRÜ Esports42c175$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.342729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Evil Geniuses52c169$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4329151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked KRÜ Esports11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.66939.1%27 W · 42 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Evil Geniuses34c150.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.271,38047.1%650 W · 730 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed KRÜ Esports67c148.21$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995238.5%20 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Evil Geniuses19c145.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.336053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed KRÜ Esports42c144$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.169438.3%36 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed KRÜ Esports41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1414436.1%52 W · 92 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed KRÜ Esports60c134.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed KRÜ Esports39c134$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2611841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Evil Geniuses43c129.01$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2377929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed KRÜ Esports53c126.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.513545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Evil Geniuses59c117.15$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6937545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Evil Geniuses34c113.38$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.81,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Evil Geniuses22c109.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7954439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Evil Geniuses47c103.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7645033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked KRÜ Esports74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7426450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed KRÜ Esports42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212243.4%53 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed KRÜ Esports42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x074b…65f9backed KRÜ Esports30c97.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked KRÜ Esports57c92.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.04757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed KRÜ Esports51c91.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.732263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Evil Geniuses40c90.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.881,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Evil Geniuses41c84.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.891,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Evil Geniuses24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.335569.1%38 W · 17 L+12.2wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+69.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0146…177dbacked KRÜ Esports65c82.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed KRÜ Esports55c81.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4817555.4%97 W · 78 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Evil Geniuses20c80$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7636…3019backed Evil Geniuses47c78.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.02475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e8…5289backed KRÜ Esports64c76.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-42.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed KRÜ Esports43c76.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.682634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba27…5c9dbacked KRÜ Esports36c70.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8772…982dbacked KRÜ Esports68c69.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked KRÜ Esports37c67.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.