TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

La Liga · resolved market

Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,813 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f65…2036backed Over57c33,593$19,000 inWon+$14,592.665100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under44c22,461$9,844 inLost-$9,843.871,52938.5%588 W · 941 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under43c8,677$3,709 inLost-$3,709.233,46143%1,489 W · 1,972 L+31.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under43c2,388$1,015 inLost-$1,015.243250.7%219 W · 213 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over41c2,236$915 inWon+$1,321.441741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under61c2,000$1,210 inLost-$1,210.2125033.6%84 W · 166 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86eb…6566backed Over56c1,875$1,048 inWon+$826.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under44c1,247$548 inLost-$548.4613842.8%59 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under45c1,145$514 inLost-$514.386952.2%36 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over55c905.03$498 inWon+$407.2650949.5%252 W · 257 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Over56c900$504 inWon+$3965100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under48c811.73$390 inLost-$390.0641239.1%161 W · 251 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under44c600.64$264 inLost-$264.2849252.6%259 W · 233 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebe…8391backed Under45c433.24$195 inLost-$194.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x780f…5f16backed Over41c243.9$100 inWon+$143.91947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under42c164.28$69 inLost-$693863.2%24 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under47c160$75 inLost-$74.51250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over46c157.85$73 inWon+$85.351,01733.4%340 W · 677 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under60c132$79 inLost-$79.23345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over55c120.8$67 inWon+$53.761,57751.4%811 W · 766 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under45c65.51$29 inLost-$29.4812643.7%55 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under41c61.25$25 inLost-$25.112236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3662…0e48backed Over56c60.71$34 inWon+$26.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked Over38c60$23 inWon+$37.22347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24f3…cf28backed Over57c52.94$30 inWon+$22.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under44c46$20 inLost-$20.4214150.4%71 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under44c39$17 inLost-$17.169060%54 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf2…d6d8backed Under46c32.61$15 inLost-$15825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Under45c26.01$12 inLost-$11.832839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x545d…70ffbacked Under46c22.91$11 inLost-$10.54825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x299b…2fb4backed Over57c20.21$12 inWon+$8.693100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.