La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Madrid CF O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654840e78fd57ca1f1034e5f2bd55b458b61a6fb483e55c2222d63246cf38c4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 56c | 7,410$4,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,120.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…178dbacked Over | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 56c | 3,578$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 45c | 2,831$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 2,572$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.59 | 1,529 | 38.5%588 W · 941 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 2,478$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.07 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 1,981$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.93 | 492 | 52.6%259 W · 233 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 55c | 1,490$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…e28fbacked Over | 53c | 1,368$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 47c | 1,306$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 1,086$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.93 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,004$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.93 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 983.18$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.46 | 412 | 39.1%161 W · 251 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 947$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.68 | 653 | 56.5%369 W · 284 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 709.57$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.21 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 49c | 644.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 59c | 509.15$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.38 | 1,017 | 33.4%340 W · 677 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 49c | 469.2$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 49c | 423.41$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.94 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 380.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.51 | 1,577 | 51.4%811 W · 766 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 356.15$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 250 | 33.6%84 W · 166 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 51c | 305.54$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Under | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed Over | 65c | 170$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Over | 47c | 153.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Under | 45c | 115.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 94.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 45c | 90.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…3835backed Under | 44c | 78.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Over | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 54.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…c98cbacked Over | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 54c | 47.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 205 | 33.7%69 W · 136 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 55c | 43.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…869dbacked Over | 49c | 41.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 41.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 693 | 50.2%348 W · 345 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 44c | 27.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…5bb9backed Under | 53c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…e692backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 49c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…619dbacked Over | 62c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…c179backed Over | 55c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…6fe4backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Madrid CF O/U 2.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Madrid CF 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Madrid CF 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Madrid CF O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Madrid CF O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.