TailMyPicks
Market

La Liga · resolved market

Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c81…98b7backed Over49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+82.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over46c5,560$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.6514150.4%71 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41d2…d7c9backed Under50c3,257$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under52c3,103$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.71,18651.7%613 W · 573 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under68c2,372$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.831741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96011154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0807057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Over50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc202…1623backed Under52c1,384$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under65c1,240$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.291,52938.5%588 W · 941 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51075751%386 W · 371 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2393…d54dbacked Over14c999.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under49c952.9$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.0613842.8%59 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c861.78$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.4765356.5%369 W · 284 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under51c848.69$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4169350.2%348 W · 345 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa969…d109backed Over53c824.07$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cb0…5390backed Over53c736.96$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.371546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under8c711.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4484939.7%337 W · 512 L-21.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Over45c670.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over14c490.16$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.7925033.6%84 W · 166 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x308b…b223backed Over53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.73855.3%21 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under50c332.21$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.120533.7%69 W · 136 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under58c313.38$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.553,46143%1,489 W · 1,972 L+31.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under48c310.12$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8613059.2%77 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under69c304.32$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.043345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00d…af5fbacked Over18c299.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.591361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc357…3684backed Under54c284.01$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c281.05$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.14,75347.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L-21.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under51c233.73$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.081,57751.4%811 W · 766 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under48c203.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6750949.5%252 W · 257 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023941%16 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x333f…3cd6backed Over51c194.42$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.22683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under64c167.3$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4214643.2%63 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over36c164.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5916541.2%68 W · 97 L-11.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under48c153$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.449237%34 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…aac8backed Over53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Over18c99.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.791850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed Under47c84.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.042356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…eaecbacked Over51c80.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Under53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427660.5%46 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb66…9085backed Under59c78.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Over54c64.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f60…c8bfbacked Over51c63.73$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+225.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Under49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9921554%116 W · 99 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Over49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x603b…5339backed Over45c49.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick57cpaid+84.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24a…5327backed Over51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…dbd6backed Over53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Under51c46.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.782737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under50c44.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.149446.8%44 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Over45c34.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92070%14 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over47c34.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.166952.2%36 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x545d…70ffbacked Under50c28.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.03825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaf3…2286backed Under50c26.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over50c25.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7649252.6%259 W · 233 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611450%57 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Over50c20.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under56c19.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1712451.6%64 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under76c15.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.534334.9%15 W · 28 L-7.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.