World Politics · resolved market
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40f204e63d7dba3d2dcab99540d3f6e8c3d5145b75f8eb57c3b1b7b728fc8ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 8,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 7c | 3,433$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.17 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 51c | 1,102$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.17 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 1,102$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 15c | 1,018$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 76c | 908.98$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.35 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 29c | 761$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 15c | 658$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 621.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 451.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 448.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 443.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 10c | 344.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 4c | 273.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 16c | 269.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 31c | 259.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked No | 7c | 180.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 13c | 166$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 136$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 77c | 133.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 123$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 52c | 106.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 25c | 52.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked Yes | 48c | 44.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 76c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…c88bbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…82f5backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…452fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?this page
- Will Nito Abreu win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.